澳大利亚央行预计周二将利率提至4.6%近15年高位

澳大利亚储备银行预计在周二下午2点30分宣布利率决议，将官方现金利率上升25个基点至4.6%12，创下近15年来的新高1。四大银行和金融市场一致预期这一上升幅度的概率为80-90%2。

此举背景是通胀顽固高企。当前标题通胀率为3.5%，修剪平均值为3.6%，均高于澳联储2-3%的目标2。8月通胀数据高于预期，最新数据将于周三公布，可能从3.5%升至4%1。与此同时，油价上涨也施加了压力，五大城市平均油价为汽油2.37澳元/升、柴油2.69澳元/升1。

利率上升将直接冲击借款人的还贷负担。若银行完全转嫁成本，平均房贷借款人年度支出将增加约1440澳元，新州借款人年增1656澳元，首次购房者年增1200澳元2。当前澳大利亚平均房贷额为731000澳元，变动利率为6.24-6.62%2。约29%的澳大利亚房贷持有人（约154万人）面临抵押贷款压力风险2。

政府表示正致力于向通胀施压。副总理理查德·马尔斯指出，政府知道家庭"日子艰难"，正努力对通胀施加下行压力1。政府拒绝恢复之前的燃油税减优政策1。澳联储主席Bullock将于下午3点30分举行媒体发布会阐述决议2。

Australia's central bank is widely expected to raise its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6% on Tuesday afternoon, marking the highest level in nearly 15 years 12. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the decision at 2:30 p.m., with RBA Governor Bullock scheduled to hold a press conference at 3:30 p.m. 2. All four major Australian banks and financial markets are forecasting an 80–90% probability of the increase 2.

The rate hike comes amid persistently high inflation and rising cost-of-living pressures on households. Current headline inflation stands at 3.5%, with trimmed mean inflation at 3.6%, both above the central bank's 2–3% target range 2. August inflation data came in higher than expected, with the latest figures due to be released on Wednesday and potentially rising from 3.5% to 4% 1. Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles acknowledged that families are facing difficult times and stated the government is working to exert downward pressure on inflation 1. However, the government has refused to restore previously implemented fuel tax relief measures 1. Contributing to inflationary pressures, petrol prices across Australia's five largest cities averaged A$2.37 per liter and diesel A$2.69 per liter as of Wednesday 1, driven partly by oil price increases linked to U.S.–Iran tensions, which have also prompted rate hikes from central banks in the U.S., Japan, and Europe 1.

For borrowers, the anticipated rate increase would translate into substantial additional costs if banks pass on the full increase. The average mortgage holder would face an additional A$1,440 annually, while first-time home buyers would see an increase of A$1,200 per year 2. With the average Australian mortgage standing at A$731,000 and current variable rates ranging from 6.24% to 6.62%, a 25-basis-point rise would add approximately A$120 to monthly mortgage payments 2. The hike is particularly concerning given that 29% of Australian mortgage holders—approximately 1.54 million people—already face mortgage stress risk 2.