中国地方政府的土地财政收入陷入严重困境。1至8月国有土地使用权出让收入为1兆3753亿元，同比下降28.6%，创历史新低1。2025年全年该项收入为4兆1518亿元，同比下降14.7%，相比2020年峰值8.4兆元已缩水过半1。
随着土地出让收益骤减，地方政府财政压力日趋加重。一般公共预算收入虽然同比增长5.7%，但政府性基金预算收入大幅下滑1。为弥补缺口，地方政府越来越依赖专项债进行基建投资，导致全国债务付息支出随之上升，2025年达到1兆3491亿元，比上年增加4.8%1。
面对这一困局，地方财政面临两难。县级财政部门负责人直言，修路、搞建设、还旧债等支出"全指着土地出让收入"，如今"地卖不动了窟窿拿什么补"1。专家指出，土地出让收入对当期支出仍然至关重要，地方财力普遍吃紧，难以另辟新的收入渠道1。
China's land finance system faces a deepening crisis as revenues from state-owned land use rights sales have collapsed to historic lows. During the first eight months of the year, such revenues totaled 1.3753 trillion yuan, down 28.6 percent year-over-year.1 For the full year 2025, land use rights sales revenue reached 4.1518 trillion yuan, representing a 14.7 percent decline and less than half the 8.4 trillion yuan peak recorded in 2020.1
The deteriorating land finance landscape has intensified fiscal pressure on local governments. While general public budget revenue grew 5.7 percent, government fund budget revenue fell sharply.1 With fewer funds from land sales, municipalities have increasingly turned to special-purpose bonds to finance infrastructure projects. National debt service expenditures reached 1.3491 trillion yuan in 2025, up 4.8 percent from the previous year.1
Officials acknowledge the predicament directly. A county finance bureau director stated: "Road construction, development projects, and debt repayment all depend on land sale proceeds. Now that land is not selling, where will we get the money to fill the gap?"1
Experts say land finance revenue remains essential to local operations in the near term. Wang Zhenyu noted that land sale proceeds remain critical for current expenditures, as local governments face widespread fiscal strain and lack alternative revenue sources.1 The structural challenge underscores that while the land finance model cannot be abandoned immediately, local authorities face mounting pressure to develop new funding mechanisms.
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