俄罗斯预计加强对欧洲混合战争

俄罗斯对欧洲的混合战争自夏季以来大幅升级，本周内多个欧洲国家遭遇无人机和直升机入侵事件。1摩尔多瓦本周记录到4架无人机进入其领空，其中2架在摩尔多瓦领土内爆炸，该国北部领空被临时关闭。1罗马尼亚也遭到2架无人机的领空违反，其中1架在北部城镇索尔卡附近坠毁，导致距离乌克兰仅数十公里的边境口岸关闭。1波兰方面记录到俄罗斯米-8直升机在其领空停留42秒。1此外，波兰华沙南部40公里的沃拉克罗博夫斯卡村附近星链地面站周三晚间发生火灾，导致两处波兰边界口岸被疏散。1波兰北约战斗机两次被紧急起飞应对俄罗斯在乌克兰边境附近的攻击。1

各国领导人将这些事件视为俄罗斯的蓄意行动。波兰总理图斯克表示，俄罗斯总统普京想要"通过摧毁乌克兰的工业和能源基础设施来耗尽乌克兰，但他也想要耗尽欧洲"。1罗马尼亚总统尼库塞斯库指出罗马尼亚是"与乌克兰边境最长的欧盟成员国，直接感受到了这场战争通过反复违反我们领空的影响"。1

西方情报机构发出了更广泛的警告。美国情报机构警告俄罗斯可能准备从地中海国际水域和俄罗斯影子船队对意大利、法国和西班牙发动无人机攻击。1丹麦国防部长布鲁斯表示"目前形势是冷战结束以来最严重的"，俄罗斯预计在未来几个月内加强对西方和北约的混合战争。1

Russia has escalated its hybrid warfare campaign across Europe through repeated incursions of unmanned aircraft and helicopters into NATO and European Union airspace since summer, prompting emergency border closures and airport disruptions across the continent.1 This week alone, Moldova recorded four drones entering its airspace, with two detonating within Moldovan territory and forcing a temporary closure of airspace in the country's northern region.1 Romania experienced violations by two unmanned aircraft, one of which crashed near the northern town of Soroca, leading to the closure of a border crossing only tens of kilometers from Ukraine.1 Poland's NATO fighter jets were scrambled twice in response to Russian attacks near the Ukrainian border, and a Starlink ground station caught fire Wednesday evening near Wołaków Robowska village, approximately 40 kilometers south of Warsaw, resulting in the evacuation of two Polish border crossings.1 A Russian Mi-8 helicopter remained in Polish airspace for 42 seconds, according to Polish military officials.1

Government leaders attribute the escalation to deliberate Russian strategy. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin aims "to exhaust Ukraine by destroying its industrial and energy infrastructure, but he also wants to exhaust Europe."1 Romanian President Klaus Iohannis told the United Nations General Assembly that Romania, as "the EU member state with the longest border with Ukraine, directly feels the impact of this war through repeated violations of our airspace."1 U.S. intelligence agencies have warned that Russia may be preparing to launch drone attacks against Italy, France, and Spain from international waters in the Mediterranean and through its shadow fleet.1 Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen characterized the current situation as "the most serious since the end of the Cold War," with Russian hybrid warfare against the West and NATO expected to intensify over the coming months.1