特朗普的民调支持率跌至历史新低,净赞同率降至-23.0,其中60.4%的美国人不赞同其表现,37.4%表示赞成1。在具体政策领域,特朗普在通胀问题上的净赞同率为-46.4,在经济问题上为-32.11。
根据民调分析师内特·西尔瓦的预测模型,民主党在11月3日的中期选举中成为获得参众两院控制权的明确竞争者1。民主党在通用选票中领先共和党9.1个百分点(51.4%-42.3%),在西尔瓦的模型中拥有69%的概率赢得参议院,91%的概率赢得众议院1。此外,民主党在德州、俄亥俄州、阿拉斯加州和爱荷华州的参议院竞选中均领先2至5个百分点1。在伊朗战争问题上,57.9%的美国人表示反对,33.5%支持,净支持率为-24.41。
President Donald Trump's approval ratings have plummeted to historically low levels, with his net approval rating falling to -23.0 points 1. According to current polling data, 60.4% of Americans disapprove of his performance while only 37.4% approve 1. The deterioration extends to specific policy areas, with Trump's net approval on inflation dropping to -46.4 and on the economy to -32.1 1.
Polling analyst Nate Silver's predictive model indicates that Democrats have emerged as clear favorites heading into the midterm elections, showing a 9.1 percentage point lead in generic ballot polling over Republicans at 51.4% to 42.3% 1. Silver's model projects Democrats have a 69% probability of winning Senate control and a 91% probability of winning House control 1. These electoral prospects reflect broader dissatisfaction, with 57.9% of Americans opposing military action against Iran compared to 33.5% in favor, yielding a net opposition of -24.4 1. Additional headwinds facing the administration include rising fuel costs, with gasoline averaging $4.48 per gallon and commodity prices increasing from $2.99 to $3.49 per gallon between late August and the present 1.
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