民调机构Survation与38 Degrees针对8000多名英国选民进行的研究发现，如果下次大选中广泛采用战术投票，进步派选民可能会大幅改变议会格局1。根据该调查所含的逐席位MRP模型，工党在基础情景下预计获得272席（占议席数42%，得票率28%），而在战术投票情景下这一数字将上升至319席1。相比之下，改革英国党的席位将从153席大幅下滑至62席，跌至第四位，保守党则排在第三名，获得85席1。
调查表明，约有18%的选民愿意在其所在选区进行战术投票但尚未付诸行动1。四成选民目前支持在当地无法进入前两名的政党且愿意战术投票，其中约一半的人表示愿意支持在两党竞争中更有希望的候选人1。此外，自2024年4月以来，返回工党的左倾选民数量是右倾选民的两倍1。该民调在英国劳工党年会前夜发布1。
A poll of over 8,000 British voters has found that widespread tactical voting in the next general election could push Reform UK into fourth place and secure a parliamentary majority for Labour.1 The survey, conducted by Survation and 38 Degrees and featuring a seat-by-seat MRP model, reveals that 18% of voters are willing to vote tactically in their constituency but have not yet done so.1
Under the baseline model, Labour is projected to win 272 seats, representing 42% of parliament despite securing only 28% of the vote, while Reform UK would secure 153 seats and the Conservatives would finish third with 85 seats.1 If tactical voting is implemented on a broad scale, Labour's seat count could rise to 319 while Reform UK's would plummet to 62 seats.1 The poll found that approximately 40% of voters currently support a party unable to finish in the top two locally and would be willing to vote tactically, with roughly half of that group expressing willingness to support the more viable candidate in a two-party contest.1 Since April 2024, the number of left-leaning voters returning to Labour has been double that of right-leaning voters doing so.1
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