特朗普政府正考虑切断美国燃油出口，这一举措可能导致澳大利亚柴油价格大幅上涨。1堪培拉本周四的柴油价格已达到298.7澳分/升，无铅汽油价格为250澳分/升。1本月油价上涨了近40澳分/升，这意味着加满一个55升油箱的费用增加了22澳元。1
全球能源供应面临多重压力。1布伦特原油基准价格在过去两周的大部分时间内维持在每桶100美元以上，达到自5月以来的最高水平。1中东冲突和乌克兰战争限制了全球油气供应，1而海湾国家的柴油出口已降至战前水平的四分之一。1
澳大利亚对进口柴油的依赖使其特别容易受到供应链中断的影响。1美国目前日均出口超过150万桶柴油。12026年1月至7月期间，澳大利亚进口超过1.84亿升柴油，其中仅510.9万升来自美国。1澳大利亚的柴油储备已降至31天供应量，低于7月的39天。1
分析师对可能的价格上升幅度看法不一。1分析师萨乌尔·卡沃尼预测，如果美国禁止柴油出口，澳大利亚的柴油价格可能在数周内超过4澳元/升。1而马夸里大学研究员卢里昂·德·梅洛表示澳大利亚柴油价格可能超过3.10澳元/升，但不太可能达到3.50澳元/升。1
Diesel prices across Australia could soar beyond AUD$3 per litre if the Trump administration proceeds with plans to cut US fuel exports, analysts warn.1 The prospect comes as global fuel markets already face supply pressures from Middle Eastern conflicts and the Ukraine war, with Brent crude maintaining levels above USD$100 per barrel for most of the past two weeks—the highest since May.1
Australia's heavy reliance on imported diesel makes it particularly vulnerable to such restrictions.1 Currently, the United States exports more than 1.5 million barrels of diesel daily.1 However, Australia imported only 5.1 million litres from the US between January and July 2026, with the majority arriving in April.1 By contrast, Australia imported over 184 million litres of diesel during the same period.1 Gulf countries have reduced diesel exports to just one quarter of pre-war levels, further constraining global supplies.1
Canberra's diesel prices reached 298.7 cents per litre on Thursday, with petrol at 250 cents.1 This represents a jump of nearly 40 cents per litre this month—adding AUD$22 to fill a 55-litre tank.1 Australian diesel reserves have dwindled to just 31 days of supply, down from 39 days in July,1 intensifying concerns about price vulnerability. Analyst Saul Cavoni predicts that following a US export ban, Australian diesel prices could exceed AUD$4 per litre within weeks.1 Macquarie University researcher Lurion de Melo offers a more moderate projection, suggesting prices could exceed AUD$3.10 per litre but are unlikely to reach AUD$3.50.1
The pricing pressures coincide with broader economic headwinds for Australia, as the central bank is expected to raise the cash rate to 4.6% on Tuesday—the highest in 14 years.1
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