上海交通大学教授陆铭分析了中国当前的经济结构性矛盾。1中国上半年GDP年增率为4.7%，第二季度仅4.3%。1陆铭指出，制造业因国内需求饱和陷入价格战困境，而服务业在数量、品质和多样性等方面的供给无法满足需求，服务业发展滞后成为制约消费、拖累经济增长的关键因素。1
税收结构反映了这一差异——制造业增值税税率为13%，而服务业仅为8%。1养老、教育、医疗、幼托、文化娱乐、体育等领域存在明显缺口。1陆铭表示，当前经济成长的亮点集中在人工智能、新能源车、锂电池等新兴领域，但"它们的共同特点是资本密集型，带来的就业成长和居民收入成长，都相对不足"。1这加剧了经济数据与民众体感之间的差距。1
Shanghai Jiao Tong University professor Lu Ming has analyzed China's economic structural imbalances, pointing to a deepening crisis in the manufacturing sector and inadequate service sector development as key constraints on growth.1 The manufacturing industry faces a price war trap driven by saturated domestic demand, while the service sector fails to meet consumer needs in quantity, quality, and diversity across critical areas including elderly care, education, healthcare, childcare, culture, entertainment, and sports.1
Lu Ming attributes the gap between headline economic figures and public sentiment to the nature of growth in emerging industries.1 He notes that artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries represent the current bright spots in economic expansion, yet these are capital-intensive sectors that generate insufficient employment and income growth for residents.1 This mismatch helps explain why China's first-half GDP growth reached 4.7 percent year-on-year, with the second quarter slowing to just 4.3 percent, even as the government targets economic growth between 4.5 and 5 percent for 2026.1
The structural disadvantage facing the service sector is evident in tax policy: manufacturing value-added tax stands at 13 percent while services are taxed at only 8 percent.1 In response to these economic headwinds, the Communist Party's Political Bureau held a meeting in late July calling for accelerated transformation of old and new growth drivers.1
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