厄尔尼诺现象导致2026年大西洋飓风季历史性减少

2026年大西洋飓风季创造卫星监测时代纪录。1截至9月23日，北大西洋仅形成6个热带风暴且零飓风，为自1966年卫星监测开始以来首次出现这一现象。1相比之下，2005年同期已经产生5场大飓风，其中包括卡特里娜飓风。1今年热带风暴的累积气旋能量创该时段记录低值，全部6个热带风暴均未达到时速119公里的1级飓风标准。1

这一异常现象主要源于强厄尔尼诺现象的影响。1太平洋关键区域海表温度上升超过3摄氏度，形成"非常强"的厄尔尼诺。1这一现象改变了太平洋风场和海温格局，进而抑制了大西洋飓风的形成。1与此同时，太平洋地区的飓风活动则明显增加，本周已出现升级为数十年来最强的"波罗"飓风，美国气象局预测太平洋飓风季节活动高于平均水平。1

厄尔尼诺现象平均每2-7年出现一次，其影响可持续长达一年。1气象专家警告，强厄尔尼诺与全球气候变暖的叠加效应可能带来更深远的影响。1芝加哥大学气候影响实验室预测，本次厄尔尼诺期间极端高温可能导致全球近50万人死亡。1预计厄尔尼诺与气候变化的结合可能在2027年创造热浪纪录。1

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has set a remarkable record, with no hurricanes formed as of September 23—a first since satellite monitoring began in 1966 1. By this date in the season, only six tropical storms had developed, all falling short of the 119 kilometers-per-hour threshold required for Category 1 hurricane status 1. The cumulative cyclonic energy of this year's tropical storms marked a record low for this period 1, contrasting sharply with 2005, when five major hurricanes, including Hurricane Katrina, had already formed by late September 1.

The primary driver behind this unusual suppression of Atlantic hurricane activity is a powerful El Niño phenomenon currently affecting global weather patterns 1. Sea surface temperatures in key Pacific regions have risen more than 3 degrees Celsius, creating what meteorologists classify as a "very strong" El Niño 1. This climate pattern, which occurs on average every two to seven years and can persist for up to a year, has fundamentally altered wind and temperature conditions in the Atlantic, making hurricane formation far less favorable 1. Simultaneously, the same El Niño has fueled heightened tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific, where several major hurricanes have emerged, including Hurricane Bolo, which intensified this week to become the strongest storm in decades 1. The U.S. National Weather Service forecasts above-average hurricane activity for the Pacific season 1.

Looking ahead, the convergence of El Niño and ongoing climate change presents grave concerns for global weather extremes 1. Scientists predict that by 2027, this combination could generate record-breaking heat waves, with researchers from the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab estimating that extreme temperatures during this El Niño period could result in approximately 500,000 heat-related deaths worldwide 1.