英国议会为政府经济预测机构OBR辩护 驳斥权力过度批评

英国议会财政委员会日前发布报告，为政府独立经济预测机构预算责任办公室（OBR）进行辩护，驳斥了来自政治光谱两端对其权力过度的批评。1委员会主席梅格·希利尔表示，OBR的影响力并非源于自身越权，而是反映了政府面临的严峻财政约束。1希利尔指出："财政规则，因此OBR的预测，在政府支出处于微薄边际时变得更加重要。这是财政大臣决策的特点，而非OBR的越权。"1

该委员会同时建议政府考虑指示OBR制定10年期经济预测，以补充其现有的5年和50年预测。1此外，委员会建议议会应为OBR的年度财政风险和可持续性报告预留专门辩论时间。1OBR成立于2010年，由时任财政大臣乔治·奥斯本建立。1该机构主席理查德·休斯因早期预算评估泄露而于2025年12月辞职。1经济学家指出，OBR发布的"可用空间"数据已逐渐成为约束政府政策制定的关键因素。1

Britain's parliamentary Treasury Committee has published a report rejecting criticism that the Office for Budget Responsibility wields excessive influence over government policy 1. The OBR, established in 2010 by then-Chancellor George Osborne, has come under fire from both left and right-wing political camps over its authority in shaping fiscal decisions 1.

Committee chair Meg Hillier contended that the forecaster's prominent role stems not from overreach but from the government's constrained fiscal circumstances 1. "Fiscal rules, and therefore OBR forecasts, become more important when government spending operates on a narrow margin. This is a characteristic of the Chancellor's decision-making, not an overreach by the OBR," Hillier stated 1. Economists have noted that the OBR's calculations of available fiscal space have become a critical constraint on policy options 1.

The report's timing follows the departure of OBR chair Richard Hughes in December 2025 following a leak of preliminary budget assessments 1. The Committee has proposed that Parliament allocate dedicated debate time for the OBR's annual reports on fiscal risks and sustainability, and recommended that the government consider directing the forecaster to produce 10-year economic projections to complement its existing five-year and 50-year forecasts 1.