澳大利亚财政部的最新数据显示，未来40年内移民政策的调整对人均GDP的实际影响相对较小1。在低移民情景下（年度净海外移民18.5万人），到2066年人均GDP仅下降约400澳元，与财政部基准假设（年度23.5万人）相比差异不大1。即使在高移民情景下（年度28.5万人），人均国民收入也仅增加约100澳元1。
然而，专家警告称移民减少将对澳大利亚政府财政造成更为严重的长期影响1。在低移民情景下，老龄依赖比（65岁及以上人口与100名工作者的比率）将从27.4上升至43，同时国债占GDP比重上升4.8%，养老、残障、医疗等支出增加0.6%1。相比之下，生产率的提升对国家财富的影响远超人口因素，在高生产率情景下，2066年人均国民收入可从149,500澳元增至172,000澳元1。
财政官员杰姆·查默斯为政府预测到2028年年度净海外移民将下降至22.5万人进行了辩护，并表示"移民是我们经济和社会的积极力量"，政府将"以最负责任的方式"降低净海外移民1。
Australia's Department of Finance has found that migration differences will have surprisingly modest effects on per-capita GDP over the next four decades. 1 Under a low migration scenario of 185,000 annual arrivals, Australia's per-capita GDP in 2066 would be only $400 lower than the baseline assumption of 235,000 arrivals per year. 1 Conversely, a high migration scenario of 285,000 annual arrivals would increase per-capita national income by just $100, despite adding approximately 2 million to the population over 40 years. 1
However, experts caution that reduced migration numbers carry significant fiscal consequences. The aged dependency ratio—measuring people aged 65 and over per 100 workers—would rise from 27.4 to 43 under the low migration scenario, placing greater pressure on government finances. 1 This demographic shift would increase government debt relative to GDP by 4.8 percent and raise spending on pensions, disability support, and healthcare by 0.6 percent. 1 In contrast, productivity improvements have a far greater impact on national wealth: under a high productivity scenario, per-capita national income would surge from $149,500 to $172,000 by 2066. 1
Government Finance Minister Jem Chambers defended the administration's projection that net overseas migration would decline to 225,000 annually by 2028, stating that "migration is a positive force for our economy and society" while committing to reduce net migration "in the most responsible way." 1
评论
还没有评论，欢迎留下第一条。