习近平将于9月23至25日对美国进行国是访问,期间与川普举行川习会12。中国清华大学研究员周波表示,中美两国今年5月已将关系定位为"建设性战略稳定关系",这代表美国第一次历史上正式对中国综合国力的认可1。周波指出,"战略稳定"的基础在于双方力量大致相等,中美之间既有竞争也有合作,但"双方都不想滑落到中美冲突"1。
此次会晤的现实成果预计包括推动5月成立的贸易和投资理事会运作,其中涉及约300亿美元的对等降税安排2。在AI领域,双方计划探讨安全事件通报机制,形成"竞争"和"共同风险"两条合作线2。中国学者孙成昊表示,中美正在尝试"让竞争的事情归竞争,让合作的事情归合作"2。
台湾问题成为此次会晤的重要议题。周波认为,当中国力量与美国达到"平起平坐"时,"不太可能接受自身领土的一部分从中国分离出去"1。据报道,习近平预计将根据1982年协议要求特朗普停止对台湾的武器销售4。孙成昊将台湾议题定位为"风险管控议题"而非"成果议题"2。周波强调,中美军事关系最希望的就是"可控"1。
Chinese President Xi Jinping will conduct a state visit to the United States from September 23 to 25, during which he is expected to meet with President Trump.12 According to Chinese scholars, the meeting represents an effort by both nations to establish what has been formally defined as a "constructive strategic stability relationship" since May.12
Researchers at Tsinghua University characterize the upcoming talks as part of a broader attempt to "manage competition" between the two powers.2 Zhou Bo, a research fellow at the university, notes that the foundation of strategic stability rests on the two sides possessing roughly equivalent strength—a development he describes as the first time the United States has officially recognized China's comprehensive national power.1 The distinction between current US-China dynamics and the Cold War era lies in the fact that both nations compete within the same international system rather than in separate spheres.1 Zhou emphasizes that "both sides do not want to slide into a US-China conflict,"1 while Trump stated during a May visit to China that he did not want to "fly 9,500 miles to fight a war."1
Concrete outcomes anticipated from the meeting include operationalizing a trade and investment council established in May, which involves roughly $30 billion in reciprocal tariff reductions on each side.2 The two nations also plan to explore mechanisms for notification procedures regarding AI safety incidents, a domain where competition and shared risks coexist.2 However, the Taiwan issue is framed as a risk management matter rather than a potential area for agreement.2 Xi is expected to press Trump to halt arms sales to Taiwan based on a 1982 agreement,4 an issue analysts identify as potentially destabilizing to the US-China relationship.4 On the military front, Zhou underscores that both nations prioritize maintaining control over their strategic competition.1
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