英国消费者信心跌至三年低位 对利率和就业前景担忧加剧

英国消费者信心在9月出现显著下滑，S&P Global消费者情绪指数从8月的42.9降至42.71。这一下降反映出消费者对经济前景的担忧日益加深，其中利率上升和就业市场不确定性成为主要驱动因素。在1,500名受访者中，超过50%预计未来一年借贷成本将上升1，这种预期已经对实际借贷市场产生了影响。

抵押贷款成本已升至多年高位，其中两年期固定抵押贷款利率升至5.88%（自4月16日以来最高），五年期升至5.92%（自2023年10月以来最高）1。按照基于25年期£250,000贷款计算，抵押贷款成本预计从2026年3月起每月增加约£1501。这种成本上升已逐步改变家庭的财务状况，四年内平均直接扣款从约£600上升至£9001。

就业市场信心也跌至三年半最低1，商业投资意愿同步走弱。英国商会对5,000家公司的调查显示，仅有17%的企业计划在未来数月增加投资，这是疫情后的最低水平1。

UK consumer confidence declined to its lowest level in three years during September, driven by widespread anxiety over potential interest rate increases and deteriorating employment prospects. The S&P Global consumer sentiment index fell to 42.7 from 42.9 in August 1, with more than half of 1,500 surveyed respondents expecting borrowing costs to rise over the coming year 1.

The pressure on household finances is already evident in mortgage markets. Two-year fixed mortgage rates have climbed to 5.88%, the highest level since mid-April, while five-year rates reached 5.92%, marking their highest point since October 2023 1. Based on a typical £250,000 mortgage over 25 years, monthly payments are projected to increase by approximately £150 from March 2026 onwards 1. Over a four-year period, average direct debits have risen from roughly £600 to £900 1.

Employment market confidence has deteriorated to its weakest level in three-and-a-half years, adding to household concerns 1. A survey of 5,000 UK companies conducted by the British Chambers of Commerce found that only 17% plan to increase investment in the coming months, marking the lowest share since the pandemic recovery began 1. The combination of these pressures is intensifying scrutiny of the government's forthcoming budget announcement.