澳大利亚内阁部门近期发布的代际报告揭示了这个国家面临的严峻人口挑战。1该报告指出，澳洲生育率持续下降，当前约为1.5，预计在未来40年内将进一步跌至1.34。1作为对比，维持人口稳定所需的替代生育率为2.1，而澳大利亚已经连续50年低于这一水平。1
人口老龄化的加速也在报告中得到充分体现。12025-26年间，每100个工作年龄人口对应27.4个65岁以上老年人，这一比例到2060年代中期将升至40，在低移民情景下甚至会达到43。1报告预测，到2060年代中期，澳大利亚将首次出现死亡人数超过出生人数的情况。1
在此背景下，移民对经济可持续性的支撑作用变得尤为重要。1基线预测假设年均净海外移民为235,000人，在此情景下，人均实际国内生产总值将从本财年的99,200澳元增长至40年后的157,300澳元。1相比之下，低移民情景将导致2065-66年人均实际GDP比基线低400澳元。1低人口增长情景还将恶化财政前景，2065-66年预计潜在现金赤字将达到国内生产总值的2.4%（基线为1.8%），政府债务占GDP比重将升至32.2%（基线为26.2%）。1
报告指出，维持健康的移民计划对应对人口老龄化、维持经济增长和财政可持续性至关重要。1
Australia's fertility rate has fallen to 1.5 and is projected to decline further to 1.34 within four decades, according to a cabinet-level intergenerational report 1. The country has remained below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 for fifty consecutive years 1. By the mid-2060s, Australia will experience deaths exceeding births for the first time 1.
The report emphasizes that maintaining a robust migration program is critical to addressing population aging, sustaining economic growth, and ensuring fiscal sustainability 1. Under the baseline projection, which assumes net overseas migration of 235,000 people annually, real gross domestic product per capita is forecast to grow from 99,200 Australian dollars in the current financial year to 157,300 Australian dollars in forty years 1. Under a lower migration scenario, per capita real GDP would be 400 Australian dollars lower in 2065-66 compared to the baseline 1.
The demographic shift poses significant fiscal challenges. The ratio of working-age population to those aged 65 and above will deteriorate from 27.4 per 100 in 2025-26 to 40 per 100 by the mid-2060s under baseline conditions; under a low migration scenario, this ratio would worsen to 43 per 100 1. In a low population growth scenario, the government is projected to face a potential cash deficit equivalent to 2.4 percent of GDP in 2065-66, compared to 1.8 percent under baseline assumptions, while government debt would reach 32.2 percent of GDP rather than the baseline forecast of 26.2 percent 1.
Regarding declining birth rates, the Treasurer stated: "I won't and won't be giving free advice to people on these very personal decisions" 1.
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