欧洲2025年出生的婴儿将面临比1950年出生者多三年的极端火灾天气

一项研究表明，如果气候行动不加快推进，欧洲2025年出生的婴儿将在其一生中面临比1950年出生者多三年的极端火灾天气1。在当前政策轨迹下，全球升温将达到2.6摄氏度，儿童受极端火灾天气的暴露将增加84%，其中86%的增加归因于气候变化，14%归因于人类寿命延长1。

地中海地区受气候变化影响最为严重，该地区新一代将比战后婴儿潮一代多面临五年的极端火灾天气1。然而，若全球升温能被限制在1.5摄氏度，2025年出生的儿童将比当前政策情景少面临1.3年的极端火灾天气1。这项研究考虑了21个气候模型情景，模拟了本世纪末全球升温从1.5摄氏度至3.5摄氏度的各种可能1。

当前欧洲的火灾形势已显示出气候变化的迫切影响。欧盟今年火灾天气严重程度破纪录，燃烧面积为有记录以来第三严重1。欧盟民事保护机制已被激活九次，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩宣布了计划创建欧洲消防舰队1。

Research conducted by Vrije Universiteit Brussel has revealed a stark generational disparity in exposure to extreme fire weather across Europe.1 Children born in 2025 will experience approximately three times more days of extreme fire weather over their lifetimes compared to those born in 1950, according to the study's findings.1

Under current policy trajectories, global temperatures are projected to rise by 2.6 degrees Celsius by century's end, which would increase children's exposure to extreme fire weather by 84 percent.1 Of this increased exposure, 86 percent is attributable to climate change itself, while 14 percent stems from extended human lifespans.1 However, if global warming were limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius in line with international climate targets, children born in 2025 would face 1.3 fewer years of extreme fire weather exposure compared to the current policy scenario.1 The research examined 21 different climate scenarios projecting global temperature increases ranging from 1.5 to 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.1

The Mediterranean region faces the most severe impact, with the next generation expected to endure five additional years of extreme fire weather compared to the post-war generation.1 This year, the European Union experienced record-breaking fire weather severity, with burned areas representing the third most severe on record.1 The EU's Civil Protection Mechanism has been activated nine times this year, prompting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to announce plans for establishing a European firefighting fleet.1