中东地缘政治紧张局势再度扰动全球能源市场。沙特阿拉伯关键东西管道在9月10-11日遭到无人机攻击1，推动油价首次突破每桶100美元（折合澳元140元）的新高，创下自5月以来的最大涨幅1。全球石油库存自2月以来已下降507百万桶1，供应压力不断加大。由于霍尔木兹海峡运输全球五分之一的石油和天然气1，中东冲突升级对国际能源安全构成直接威胁。
然而，中国通过大幅削减石油需求在很大程度上缓和了国际油价的涨势。中国已连续第三年石油需求下降1，专家估计其日均减少进口约400万桶1。这一需求收缩与中国的能源转型密切相关——新车销售中近三分之二为电动或混动车型1，反映出该国在交通运输领域的电气化进程。值得注意的是，2021-2025年间中国经济增长约20%，但运输燃料使用保持平稳1，说明经济增长与油气消费已实现脱钩。中国石化预测2026年需求将进一步下降3.9%1。通过减少需求并动用战略储备1，中国已成为稳定全球能源市场的关键力量。
在此背景下，其他地区能源价格仍在承压。澳大利亚汽油价格上升39美分/升，柴油上升77美分/升1。与此同时，俄罗斯能源供应也受到打击——乌克兰8月单月对俄油炼厂发动至少21次打击1，导致俄罗斯石油产量下降20%，柴油下降近30%1。
Escalating tensions in the Middle East have sent shockwaves through energy markets, with oil prices breaching $100 per barrel for the first time since May following drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's critical east-west pipeline on September 10-11 1. Global crude inventories have contracted sharply by 507 million barrels since February, while the Strait of Hormuz continues to handle approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and gas shipments 1. Yet amid this renewed chaos, China has become an unexpected counterweight to further price surges by deliberately constraining its own petroleum consumption.
China accounts for roughly half of Middle Eastern oil imports and reportedly reduced its daily purchases by approximately 4 million barrels, effectively dampening global demand pressures 1. This reduction reflects a broader structural shift: Chinese crude oil demand has declined for three consecutive years, even as the nation's economy expanded by roughly 20 percent between 2021 and 2025 1. The surge in electric and hybrid vehicles—which now represent nearly two-thirds of new car sales in China—underpins this decoupling of economic growth from oil consumption 1. State-owned China Petrochemical Corporation has forecasted a further 3.9 percent demand decline by 2026 1.
The strain on global supplies extends beyond the Middle East. Ukraine launched at least 21 strikes against Russian oil refineries in August alone, while Russian petroleum output has contracted by 20 percent and diesel production by nearly 30 percent 1. Meanwhile, Australian consumers face mounting energy costs, with petrol prices rising 39 cents per liter and diesel climbing 77 cents per liter 1. By managing its strategic reserves and moderating import demand, China has become instrumental in preventing an even sharper spike in world oil prices during a period of acute market vulnerability.
评论
还没有评论，欢迎留下第一条。