澳大利亚政府最新发布的代际报告预测，到2060年代澳洲面临深刻的人口和经济转型2。报告指出，死亡人数将首次超过出生人数2，生育率将下降至1.341，65岁以上人口比例将从现在的12.5%上升至25%1。这一变化意味着到2065-66年，预计有190万澳大利亚人将超过85岁1。
经济增速面临明显放缩2。人均实际GDP增速将从历史的1.5%降至未来40年的1.2%2。为应对增速放缓，报告强调劳动生产率的关键作用，而这一增长在很大程度上依赖于人工智能的发展和应用2。
尽管面临挑战，报告描绘出相对乐观的前景。与大多数国家不同的是，养老金支出占国民收入的比例实际预计会下降1，表明国民养老金体系将保持可持续性1。财政部长查默斯表示，"这是我们一生中最大的经济转型"2。报告指出澳大利亚稳定的制度、熟练的劳动力和自然资源等优势，有助于应对地缘政治碎片化等全球风险1。政府支出占GDP比例预计到2060年代中期上升1.1个百分点至27.4%2。
Australia's latest Intergenerational Report projects a dramatically shifting demographic and economic landscape over the next four decades, marked by population decline, slower growth, and heavy reliance on artificial intelligence to sustain prosperity.12
The report forecasts that deaths will exceed births for the first time in the 2060s, as the fertility rate falls to 1.34 and the population growth rate declines from a historical 1.4% to 0.9%.12 People aged 65 and over are projected to rise from the current 12.5% to 25% of the population by 2065-66, while approximately 1.9 million Australians—representing 5% of the population—are expected to exceed 85 years of age.1 Despite these demographic pressures, the national pension system is predicted to remain sustainable, with pension spending as a share of national income actually expected to decline, contrary to trends in most other developed nations.1
Economic growth is forecast to slow substantially, with annual growth rates projected at 2% overall, compared to a historical average of 3% over the past four decades.1 Per capita real GDP growth is expected to decline to 1.2% from a historical rate of 1.5%.2 Labor productivity is anticipated to grow at an average of 1.2% annually—exceeding the 0.8% average of the past 20 years—though this recovery will depend heavily on artificial intelligence breakthroughs and adoption.12 Treasurer Jim Chalmers characterized the transformation ahead as "the biggest economic change of our lifetime," emphasizing that artificial intelligence represents a critical driver of future economic prosperity while underscoring the need to balance innovation with public protection.2 Government spending is projected to rise by 1.1 percentage points to 27.4% of GDP by the mid-2060s.2 Australia's stable institutions, skilled workforce, and natural resources are identified as key advantages in navigating geopolitical fragmentation and emerging global trade restrictions.1
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