新能源加速发展，油气还重要吗？

国家发改委、国家能源局近期印发《石油天然气发展十五五规划》，明确到2030年国内油气供给目标为4.4亿吨油当量1。该规划强调了在新能源快速发展的背景下，油气仍具有不可替代的战略意义。

目前，油气占我国一次能源消费比重约27%1。其中原油对外依存度约70%，天然气对外依存度约40%1。

为构建系统化的油气保供体系，规划制定了多项具体举措1。在管网建设方面，计划新增油气长输管道2万公里，使管网总规模突破22万公里1。在储备方面，规划提出2030年天然气储备占消费比重超13%的目标1，并计划2030年液化天然气接收能力达2亿吨/年、陆上管道进气量达1140亿立方米/年1。

为推进油气行业绿色发展，规划设定2030年碳捕获利用与封存年二氧化碳注入量达1000万吨的目标1。此外，规划还要求石油储量接替率保持在1以上，天然气储量接替率力争更高1，以支撑能源供应的长期稳定。

China's National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration have recently released the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for Petroleum and Natural Gas Development," establishing a domestic oil and gas supply target of 440 million tons of oil equivalent by 2030 1. The plan underscores the irreplaceable strategic importance of fossil fuels despite accelerating renewable energy deployment across the country 1.

Oil and gas are projected to account for approximately 27 percent of China's primary energy consumption in 2025 1. Currently, crude oil carries an import dependency of about 70 percent, while natural gas relies on imports for roughly 40 percent of consumption 1. To strengthen supply security, the plan calls for adding 20,000 kilometers of long-distance oil and gas pipelines, bringing total pipeline infrastructure to over 220,000 kilometers 1. By 2030, China aims to achieve natural gas storage capacity equivalent to more than 13 percent of annual consumption 1, with liquefied natural gas receiving capacity reaching 200 million tons annually and onshore pipeline gas intake reaching 114 billion cubic meters per year 1.

The strategy emphasizes maintaining oil reserve replacement ratios above 1.0 and pushing natural gas replacement ratios higher 1. The plan also targets injecting 10 million tons of carbon dioxide annually through carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies by 2030, enabling the oil and gas sector to transition toward low-carbon operations while facilitating multi-energy integration 1.