澳大利亚2024年代际报告预测，尽管该国将于2060年代经历死亡人数首次超过出生人数的转折，但在净海外移民的驱动下，人口仍将增至3930万1。报告假设长期净海外移民率为每年235,000人1。
经济增长步伐将明显放缓，从过去40年平均3%的增速降至2%1。与此同时，生活水平预计提高55%1。人口老龄化趋势加剧，预期寿命将分别达到女性89.5岁和男性86.1岁1；65岁及以上人口将增加一倍，85岁及以上人口增加两倍1。中位年龄也将从2025-26年的38.6岁上升至2062-63年的45岁1，生育率预计下降至每名女性1.34个孩子1。
报告还指出，人工智能、地缘政治分化和能源转型将成为未来40年的关键转变1。绿色出口领域潜力巨大，2050年相比基准情景可增加680亿澳元1。
Australia's population is projected to reach 39.3 million by 2065-66, driven primarily by net overseas migration rather than natural increase, according to a 2024 intergenerational report 1. The report forecasts that deaths will exceed births starting in the 2060s, but sustained migration at an assumed rate of 235,000 people annually will continue to fuel population growth 1.
The economic outlook presents a more measured picture than the past four decades. Economic growth is expected to slow from a historical average of 3% to 2%, while per capita income is anticipated to rise by 55% 1. Life expectancy is projected to reach 89.5 years for women and 86.1 years for men, contributing to significant demographic shifts 1. The median age will climb from 38.6 years in 2025-26 to 45 years by 2062-63, with the population aged 65 and over doubling and those 85 and older tripling over the projection period 1. The fertility rate is expected to decline to 1.34 children per woman by 2065-66 1.
The report identifies several transformative forces shaping Australia's future, including artificial intelligence, geopolitical fragmentation, and energy transition 1. On the geopolitical front, the report notes that 2025 saw eight interstate conflicts, marking the highest number since World War II 1. On a more optimistic note, green exports present significant economic opportunity, potentially adding A$68 billion by 2050 compared to scenarios without such transition 1.
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