加拿大调整了移民政策的核心逻辑，从单纯关注净海外移民流量转向直接管理临时居民人口规模1。该国临时居民数量在2024年10月达到峰值约315万人，随后逐步下降至今年4月的约256万人1。加拿大政府设定的目标是在2027年底前将非永久居民的比例控制在不足5%1，并计划2026年接纳38.5万临时居民，其后两年各接纳37万人1。
这种精细化管理方式已显现成效。加拿大国会预算办公室的研究表明，该政策虽会降低总体国内生产总值，但人均国内生产总值和工资水平会略有提高1。民众态度也出现改善，2024年底认为移民过多的民众比例为54%，一年后下降至47%1。此外，加拿大劳动力市场当前约有3个失业者对应每个职位空缺1。
有分析建议澳大利亚可以借鉴加拿大的做法，通过设定临时人口目标范围，并利用控制入境许可、规定居留期限、管理出境和永久身份转换等手段来实现更有针对性的移民管理1。
Canada has fundamentally restructured its approach to immigration policy by shifting focus from net overseas migration flows to managing the size of its temporary resident population as a direct policy lever.1 The country's non-permanent resident population peaked at approximately 3.15 million in October 2024 before declining to roughly 2.56 million by April 2025.1 The Canadian government has set an explicit target to reduce the proportion of non-permanent residents to below 5% by the end of 2027,1 with planned admissions of 385,000 temporary residents in 2026 and 370,000 in each of the subsequent two years.1
This recalibration reflects shifting public sentiment regarding immigration levels. Support for the view that Canada admits too many migrants dropped from 54% of the population at the end of 2024 to 47% within a year.1 The policy shift addresses labor market conditions, with Canada currently facing approximately three unemployed persons for every job vacancy.1 While the Parliamentary Budget Office determined that the policy would reduce overall GDP, it projected modest improvements in per capita GDP and wage growth.1
Australia could adopt a similar framework by establishing target ranges for its temporary population and employing multiple control mechanisms—including regulating entry volumes, limiting residency duration, managing departure rates, and adjusting pathways to permanent status.1 This approach represents a more calibrated alternative to sweeping, across-the-board restrictions on immigration flows.
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