塔尔图大学研究团队通过分析来自爱沙尼亚、俄罗斯、英格兰、荷兰和瑞士11个考古遗址的古DNA，重建了26个鼠疫耶尔森菌基因组，揭示了这场致命传染病在中世纪后期如何在欧洲持续回归1。研究覆盖14至18世纪期间，表明鼠疫并非源于单一传播源，而是在不同时期和地点反复出现，形成多个新的传播分支1。
研究发现，在1450-1500年期间，鼠疫菌系发生重大扩张，分裂为三个重要分支1。这些病原体的传播与历史上的重大事件紧密相关——研究团队发现了与三十年战争（1618-1648年）和大北方战争（约1700-1721年）相关的疫情爆发证据1。特别地，1710年塔林围困期间，鼠疫导致瑞典和俄罗斯士兵以及当地平民的大量死亡1。
这项研究开发了新方法以精确推测古代鼠疫基因组的年代，首次系统尝试将14至18世纪现有的几乎所有鼠疫基因组与历史记载的疫情相联系1。研究表明鼠疫的反复传播与战争、贸易和人口迁移密切相关1。
Researchers at the University of Tartu have reconstructed the evolutionary history of plague across medieval and early modern Europe by analyzing ancient DNA from multiple archaeological sites.1 The study examined 26 reconstructed genomes of Yersinia pestis, the bacterium responsible for plague, recovered from 11 archaeological sites spanning Estonia, Russia, England, the Netherlands, and Switzerland between the 14th and 18th centuries.1 Rather than originating from a single location, the plague emerged repeatedly across different times and places, each time establishing new transmission branches that coincided with major historical upheavals.1
The research revealed a significant expansion of plague lineages between 1450 and 1500, when the pathogen split into three major branches that subsequently spread across the continent.1 The team identified plague outbreaks linked to the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648) and the Great Northern War (approximately 1700–1721), demonstrating the close relationship between conflict, trade routes, and population movements in facilitating disease transmission.1 During the Siege of Tallinn in 1710, plague killed both Swedish and Russian soldiers as well as civilians, illustrating the devastating toll the disease exacted on military campaigns and civilian populations.1
The researchers developed new methods to precisely date ancient plague genomes, representing the first systematic effort to connect nearly all available plague genomes from the 14th to 18th centuries with historically documented outbreaks.1 This work demonstrates how plague persisted as a recurrent threat to European populations long after the initial Black Death pandemic, repeatedly resurging across the continent throughout the post-medieval period.1
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