德国柏林和梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州正在进行州级选举投票25，这场选举对总理弗里德里希·梅茨的政治前景构成重大威胁13。民调显示，梅茨领导的基督教民主联盟（CDU）在柏林可能失去权力，在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州的支持率仅略高于进入州议会所需的5%门槛5。与此同时，极右翼政党德国选择党（AfD）势头强劲，预计将获得显著选票增长24。
梅茨面临的压力不仅来自本次选举。两周前，AfD在萨克森-安哈尔特州获得重大胜利，而CDU的投票率减半5。梅茨自担任总理仅16个月以来，就面临低批准率和关于"总理交接"的传言5。他向右转向移民议题的策略未能削弱AfD支持，反而疏远了左翼选民5。此外，梅茨因驳斥"工作生活平衡"、要求德国人工作更多休假更少而引发不满5，并因通讯风格生硬而遭批评5。一些CDU地方候选人表达了对梅茨领导力的公开质疑5。
尽管面临挑战，德国8个州的领导人本周支持梅茨，强调恢复对CDU的信任需要"倾听和采取政治行动，而非人事讨论"5。
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confronts a pivotal moment as voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania head to the polls, with his political future hanging in the balance.1234 Polling data indicates the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Merz, faces significant losses in Berlin and risks falling just above the 5 percent threshold needed to enter the state parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.5 The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to gain ground in both elections, intensifying pressure on the chancellor's leadership.124
Merz's predicament stems partly from recent setbacks and persistent political challenges. Two weeks prior, the AfD achieved a major victory in Saxony-Anhalt while the CDU's vote share was cut in half.5 Having held office for just 16 months, Merz already faces low approval ratings and speculation about his potential replacement as party leader.5 His rightward pivot on immigration policy failed to diminish AfD support and instead alienated left-leaning voters.5 Additionally, Merz drew criticism for dismissive comments about work-life balance, urging Germans to work more and take fewer holidays, and for a communication style perceived as lacking sensitivity to public concerns.5
Internal doubts about Merz's viability have surfaced even within the CDU. One local candidate stated that if asked whether Merz should step down, he would answer affirmatively, suggesting others have better rapport with the public.5 However, leaders from eight German states rallied behind Merz this week, emphasizing that restoring public confidence in the CDU requires "listening and taking political action, not personnel discussions."5
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