中国经济学者：全球经济不平衡是常态

中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷在清华五道口论坛表示，全球经济失衡难以避免，不平衡是常态、平衡是短暂的1。李迅雷指出，中国国际循环相对畅通，但国内循环还不畅通，是亟待认真解决的问题1。他建议通过推进财税改革来增加中央政府财力，畅通国内循环1。

清华大学教授鞠建东进一步分析了中国经济面临的结构性矛盾1。他指出，中国经济存在三类主要矛盾：制造业顺差规模持续扩大、国内需求不足以及地方财政和债务问题1。鞠建东认为，房地产业下滑进一步压低了国内需求，导致许多制造业产品需要出口寻找市场1。本次论坛以"2026中国与世界经济回顾和展望——全球再平衡与国际货币体系重构"为主题1。

At the Tsinghua PBC Forum, Li Xunlei, chief economist at China-Thailand International, argued that global economic imbalances are inevitable and that disequilibrium represents the normal state, with balance being only temporary.1 He identified a key structural challenge for China: while its international economic cycle operates relatively smoothly, the domestic circulation remains constrained and requires urgent attention.1

To address this bottleneck, Li recommended advancing fiscal and tax reforms to strengthen the central government's financial capacity.1 Tsinghua professor Ju Jiandong highlighted three structural contradictions facing the Chinese economy: a continuously expanding manufacturing trade surplus, insufficient domestic demand, and local government debt pressures.1 He further noted that the downturn in the real estate sector is suppressing domestic consumption, forcing many manufacturers to seek markets through exports.1

The forum, held at Tsinghua University in Beijing on September 19, 2025, was organized under the theme "China and the World Economy in 2026: Review and Outlook—Global Rebalancing and International Monetary System Restructuring."1