厄尔尼诺现象威胁全球粮食安全

世界气象组织在2026年9月3日确认厄尔尼诺现象已确凿成立，预计将在未来数月内增强为超强事件，持续到2027年2月的可能性接近100%1。极端气候带来的影响预计将延伸至2027年，甚至可能延续到2028年1。

这场全球气候异常已经对农业生产造成了严重冲击。2026年夏天，西北太平洋及南海地区生成台风17个，其中7个登陆中国1。同期全国共出现15次大范围暴雨，477条河流发生超警戒线洪水1。此外，俄罗斯南部在2026年8月遭受严重蝗灾1。联合国世界粮食计划署粮食安全与营养分析司司长让-马丁·鲍尔指出："极端天气对农业造成的影响，往往远远超过天气事件本身持续的时间"1。联合国世界粮食计划署和中国气象局等机构已就此发出警告1。

The World Meteorological Organization confirmed on September 3, 2026, that the El Niño phenomenon has definitively established itself and is expected to intensify into a super-strong event within coming months, with nearly a 100 percent probability of continuing through February 2027.1 The effects of this climate pattern are projected to extend through 2027 and potentially into 2028.1

The strengthening El Niño has already triggered a cascade of extreme weather events with serious agricultural consequences. During the summer of 2026, seventeen typhoons formed in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, with seven making landfall in China.1 The country simultaneously experienced fifteen large-scale rainstorm events, resulting in 477 rivers exceeding flood warning levels.1 In August 2026, Russia's southern regions faced severe locust infestations.1

Jean-Martin Bauer, director of the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Division at the United Nations World Food Programme, emphasized that "the impact of extreme weather on agriculture often far exceeds the duration of the weather event itself."1 These cascading disasters have prompted international organizations including the United Nations World Food Programme and China Meteorological Administration to issue warnings about the mounting threat to global food security.1