印度正面临17年来最弱的季风季节。6月至9月季风季节的累计降雨量较长期平均值低15%，超过5月份预测的10%的降幅1。若降雨不足状况继续，这将成为2009年以来最弱的季风季节，当年降雨曾低于平均值18%1。气象部门预计季节性降雨赤字最终将在13%至16%之间1。
厄尔尼诺天气模式强化是降雨不足的主要原因1。降水短缺已对农业生产造成直接冲击，稻米、甘蔗和玉米等主要作物的种植进度均落后于去年同期1。粮食减产压力推高了食品价格，8月份粮食价格涨幅达到5.95%，为年内最高水平，且已连续攀升七个月1。
为应对粮食供应压力，印度政府已采取措施进行干预。政府允许糖类免税进口，同时在部分地区推行洋葱价格补贴销售1。这些举措旨在缓解当前收成短缺和下一个播种周期面临的威胁1。
India is bracing for its weakest monsoon season in nearly two decades, with cumulative rainfall from June through September running 15 percent below the long-term average—worse than the 10 percent deficit initially forecast in May 1. The shortfall is being driven by strengthened El Nino weather patterns, which have suppressed precipitation across the country and now threaten both the current harvest and the upcoming planting cycle 1.
The rainfall deficit is projected to range between 13 and 16 percent for the season, potentially matching conditions last seen in 2009, when monsoon rains fell 18 percent short of normal 1. This prolonged dry spell has begun to strain food supplies and prices. Food inflation reached 5.95 percent in August, marking the year's highest level and extending a seven-month streak of consecutive price increases 1. Planting of key crops including rice, sugarcane, and maize has fallen behind the pace of the previous year 1.
To mitigate the impact, the Indian government has authorized duty-free sugar imports and implemented subsidized onion sales in certain regions 1.
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