政治大學國際關係研究中心研討會上,學者吳玉山指出習近平已打破中共政治繼承的多項慣例,包括年齡「七上八下」規則和一定任期制1。他表示,現有中共中央政治局常委中沒有任何人符合接班人資格1,習近平在中共二十一大會議上一定會繼續連任1。
吳玉山分析了三種可能的政治場景1。其中「江澤民模式」是指江澤民在中共十六大交出總書記職位、隔年交出國家主席後,仍擔任軍委主席至2004年1。針對這些政治模式的發展方向,吳玉山表示「我心裡是比較希望,中共往布里茲涅夫模式走」1,認為該模式將削弱對外強硬的動機1。
Scholar Wu Yu-shan stated at a seminar that Xi Jinping has broken multiple conventions in the Chinese Communist Party's political succession, with no apparent successor currently visible, and that Xi will certainly continue his leadership at the 21st Party Congress.1 Wu noted that several longstanding norms have been abandoned, including the age convention of "67 and above, 68 and below" and fixed term limits.1 Among the current members of the CCP Central Political Bureau Standing Committee, none meet the qualifications to serve as a successor.1
Wu outlined three possible political scenarios going forward: the "Jiang Zemin model," the "20th Congress model," and the "Brezhnev model."1 Under the Jiang model, Xi could retain the position of general secretary at the 21st Congress but relinquish the presidency in the following year, as Jiang did at the 16th Congress, though continue to hold the military commission chairmanship until a later date—Jiang maintained his chairmanship until 2004.1 Wu expressed his preference, stating "in my heart, I hope the CCP moves toward the Brezhnev model," which he suggested would diminish the party's motivation for aggressive external policies.1
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