三位经济学家的最新研究通过统计学分析揭示了祈雨仪式长期存在的真实原因。1何塞-安东尼奥·埃斯平-桑切斯、萨尔瓦多·希尔-吉拉多和尼古拉斯·瑞安的论文发表于《经济学季刊》2026年期刊，分析了全球1290个族群的数据，发现其中39%的族群都保有祈雨传统。1
研究以16世纪西班牙穆尔西亚地区的一场祈雨事件为切入点。1结果表明，祈雨之所以被广泛认为有效并代代相传，并非源于仪式本身具有超自然力量，而是一种统计巧合的误读。1当干旱持续时间越长，次日降雨的概率就越高——基于这一自然规律，那位主教实际上无意中选择了"雨快要来"的最优时机进行祈祷。1人们将随后的降雨误认为是仪式灵验，将巧合转化为对祈雨传统的信心，使这一做法得以代际传承。1
A new economic analysis reveals that rain ceremonies persist globally not because of their spiritual efficacy, but due to a statistical coincidence that people systematically misinterpret as divine intervention. Three economists—Jose-Antonio Espin-Sanchez, Salvador Gill-Girado, and Nicholas Ryan—examined data from 1,290 ethnic groups worldwide and found that 39% maintain rain-praying traditions.1 Their research, published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in 2026, offers a compelling explanation for this enduring phenomenon.1
The mechanism underlying this false belief traces back to simple probability. The researchers point to a sixteenth-century Spanish example from Murcia: a bishop conducting a rain ceremony unknowingly chose to hold his prayers at precisely the moment when drought conditions made precipitation most likely to occur naturally the following day.1 Observers then attributed the rainfall to the religious ritual rather than recognizing it as the inevitable outcome of meteorological patterns—the longer a drought persists, the higher the probability of rain becomes.1 This cognitive error, repeated across cultures and centuries, created the illusion of supernatural causation and ensured the survival of these practices across generations.1
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