澳大利亚气象局警告可能出现有记录以来最强厄尔尼诺现象

澳大利亚气象局日前发出预警，当前厄尔尼诺现象可能成为自1950年有可靠记录以来强度最高的一次1。预报显示，太平洋中部海面温度异常可能超过3°C1，超过了1982-83年厄尔尼诺现象记录中海面温度异常在1983年1月达到的约2.6°C1。

不过气象局强调，厄尔尼诺强度并不直接决定其对澳大利亚的影响严重程度，澳大利亚天气受多种气候驱动因素影响1。气象局指出"每个厄尔尼诺现象都是不同的"，强烈的厄尔尼诺可能只产生温和影响，而较弱的厄尔尼诺可能产生显著影响1。

根据气象局9月10日发布的最新长期预报，澳大利亚大部分地区未来几个月气温可能高于平均水平1。在降雨方面，10月至12月期间，澳大利亚东南部（包括新南威尔士州南部、维多利亚州和塔斯马尼亚州）降雨可能低于平均水平，而西澳大利亚及部分中北部地区则预计降雨量高于平均水平1。澳大利亚整体水储存在9月初约为71%满1。

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has cautioned that the current El Niño event could emerge as the strongest since reliable records began in 1950, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific potentially exceeding 3°C 1. This would surpass the 1982-83 El Niño episode, when temperature anomalies peaked at approximately 2.6°C in January 1983 1.

However, the bureau emphasized that the intensity of an El Niño does not directly determine its impact on Australia, as the country's weather is influenced by multiple climate drivers 1. According to the bureau's latest long-term forecast released on September 10, most of Australia is likely to experience above-average temperatures in the coming months 1. For the October-to-December period, the southeastern regions—including southern New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania—are predicted to receive below-average rainfall, while Western Australia and parts of the central and northern areas are expected to see above-average precipitation 1. The bureau noted that "every El Niño is different," observing that strong El Niño events may produce only mild effects, while weaker episodes could generate significant impacts 1. As of early September, Australia's overall water storage levels stood at approximately 71% capacity 1.