一族党移民提案可能加剧澳大利亚劳动力短缺

澳大利亚一族党本周提出的移民政策提案计划在三年内将净移民转为负数。1根据该提案，国际学生数量将从约59万人削减至35万人，临时毕业生签证持有者将从约27万人削减至4万人，总计减少超76万名临时移民。1

根据2021年人口普查数据，88%的临时毕业生签证持有者参与劳动力，其中23%从事食宿、零售、清洁和住宅护理等行业。1分析指出，这些削减措施可能导致现有的劳动力短缺进一步恶化。1全国职位空缺填补率目前为68.2%，区域雇主的填补率低4.6个百分点。1

该提案还威胁澳大利亚的国际教育竞争力。12025年澳大利亚国际教育产生近550亿澳元的出口收入，这笔收入将因国际学生数量大幅下降而面临风险。1澳大利亚商业委员会表示担忧该提案可能阻碍经济增长并加剧技能短缺。1澳大利亚工业集团则指出，在现有劳动力和技能严重短缺的时期，这一计划存在"严重经济自伤风险"。1

One Nation this week unveiled a sweeping immigration proposal aimed at reversing Australia's net migration to negative levels over three years 1. The plan would slash the international student population from approximately 590,000 to 350,000, a reduction of about 240,000 students, while cutting temporary graduate visa holders from roughly 270,000 to 40,000—a decrease of approximately 230,000 people or 85 percent 1. Combined, these measures would eliminate more than 760,000 temporary migrants over the three-year period 1.

The proposed cuts raise significant concerns for Australia's labour market and economy. According to 2021 census data, 88 percent of temporary graduate visa holders participate in the workforce, with many concentrated in hospitality, retail, cleaning, and residential care sectors 1. The existing labour market already faces challenges, with only 68.2 percent of national job vacancies being filled, and regional employers experiencing a 4.6 percentage point lower fill rate 1. The international education sector would face particular strain, as overseas students generated nearly 550 billion Australian dollars in export revenue in 2025 1. Business leaders have voiced alarm; the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry warned the proposal risks undermining economic growth and exacerbating skill shortages, while the Australian Industry Group stated the plan carries "severe economic self-harm risks" during a period of existing serious labour and skills deficits 1.