美国右倾智库防务优先基金会近日发布报告，建议美国大幅撤回亚太军事部署 2。该报告由基金会高级研究员兼军事分析主任詹妮弗·卡瓦诺夫主笔 2，建议美国结束与韩国、日本、澳大利亚和菲律宾的相互防御同盟，并将军队从"第一岛链"（冲绳-台湾-菲律宾）撤至"第二岛链"（日本东部-北马里亚纳群岛-关岛-帕劳-巴布亚新几内亚）2。卡瓦诺夫在报告中称"美国与台湾没有正式承诺"，任何武装冲突"对美国的代价将远超收益"，并主张"美国应从战略模糊转变为明确的不干预政策" 2。
这一提议在亚太地区引发广泛警惕 1。国际危机组织台湾安全分析师威廉·杨指出，防务优先基金会与白宫内的决策者关系密切，其建议"将被视为震撼"，并称这一立场"似乎对中国非常宽容" 2。分析人士警告，这一举措将削弱美国的威慑力并强化中国的地位 1。大东文化大学国际关系教授加伦·穆洛伊将报告描述为"特朗普多年来一直在论述的想法的较为合理版本" 2，而首尔特洛伊大学国际关系教授丹·平克斯顿则称该计划"存在缺陷且不现实" 2。
A right-leaning American think tank has proposed a significant military pullback from the Asia-Pacific region, sparking alarm among Washington's longtime allies in the area.2 The Defense Priorities Foundation released a report on September 15, 2026, authored by senior fellow Jennifer Kavanagh, recommending that the United States end mutual defense alliances with South Korea, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines.2 The proposal also calls for withdrawing American forces from the "First Island Chain"—stretching from Okinawa through Taiwan to the Philippines—and repositioning them to the "Second Island Chain," which extends from eastern Japan through the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Palau, and Papua New Guinea.2
Central to the report's argument is the assertion that the United States has no formal defense commitment to Taiwan.2 Kavanagh stated that any armed conflict over the island "would cost far more than it would benefit America," and advocated for the country to shift from "strategic ambiguity" to an explicitly stated "non-intervention policy."2 Analysts expressed concern that the proposal aligns with isolationist thinking and could reshape the regional security landscape.2 William Yang, a Taiwan security analyst at the International Crisis Group, warned that the foundation maintains close ties to White House decision-makers and that its recommendations "will be seen as shocking," noting the plan appears "extremely accommodating to China."2 While Garren Mulloy, a professor of international relations at Daito Bunka University, characterized the report as "a more reasoned version of ideas Trump has long been articulating," Dan Pinkston, an international relations professor at Troy University Seoul, dismissed the plan as "flawed and unrealistic."2
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