澳大利亚研究团队发表的新研究表明，英国1788年入侵时澳大利亚的原住民人口中位数为222万，范围约在100万至400万之间1。这一估算远超已沿用百年的30万人数据，该旧估计由人类学家Alfred Reginald Radcliffe-Brown于1930年发表，当时是基于已经被疾病、驱逐和暴力严重摧毁后的观察1。
研究采用了三种独立的科学方法进行交叉验证：5000多个考古放射性碳测年数据、遗传数据推断的有效种群规模，以及环境生产力模型1。随后的人口灾难对原住民造成了毁灭性打击。1789年天花疫情在英国入侵后仅15个月内就导致东南澳大利亚约22万原住民死亡，此后1826-1838年和1860-1869年间又发生了其他天花爆发1。到1861年，原住民人口已下降至17.7万至19.3万之间，意味着在73年间平均每年超额死亡2.82万人，总计约206万人，研究估算的总死亡数范围从约70万至420万1。根据2021年澳大利亚人口普查，当前有812728人认同为原住民和/或托雷斯海峡岛民1。该研究已发表在《Nature Human Behaviour》期刊1。
A comprehensive study using genetic, archaeological, and environmental data has revealed that Australia's Indigenous population at the time of British invasion in 1788 was substantially larger than long-accepted estimates.1 The research places the median population at approximately 2.22 million, with a range spanning roughly 1 million to 4 million people, dramatically revising the figure of 300,000 that has been cited for nearly a century.1
The outdated estimate originated from anthropologist Alfred Reginald Radcliffe-Brown's 1930 observations, which were conducted after disease, forced removal, and violence had already devastated Indigenous communities.1 The new study employed three independent methodologies: analysis of over 5,000 archaeological radiocarbon dates, genetic data to infer effective population size, and environmental productivity modeling.1 These convergent approaches support a far larger pre-invasion population than previously recognized.
The research documents catastrophic population decline following British arrival. A smallpox epidemic struck southeastern Australia within 15 months of invasion in 1789, estimated to have killed approximately 220,000 Indigenous people.1 Additional outbreaks occurred between 1826–1838 and 1860–1869.1 By 1861, population estimates had fallen to between 177,000 and 193,000, indicating an average excess mortality rate exceeding 28,200 deaths annually over 73 years, totaling roughly 2.06 million deaths.1 Overall, the model estimates total deaths ranged from approximately 700,000 to 4.2 million.1 The findings fundamentally reshape understanding of Australia's Terra Nullius policy and the scale of invasion, survival, and recovery that followed.1 The research was published in Nature Human Behaviour.1
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