距离11月28日维多利亚州选举还有两个半月，Resolve民调显示联合党在州层面保持明显优势1。根据9月6-12日进行的调查（样本1000人），联合党支持率达28%，领先工党的25%，民族党获23%支持，绿党12%，独立候选人8%1。在州长偏好调查中，联合党保持领先，得票率28%，工党候选人Carroll获20%，民族党的Warren Pickering仅8%1。
在政策议题上，公众对联合党提出的郊区轨道循环债务融资方案表示反对，反对率达49%对27%1；工党的公共牙科融资计划也面临反对，反对率41%对支持的35%1。
联邦层面的民调形势则较为复杂1。Resolve联邦民调（9月6-12日，样本2250人）显示，工党以28%领先民族党的27%和联合党的24%，绿党11%，独立候选人6%1。但按照2025年选举偏好流向计算，工党仅以约50.5%对49.5%的微弱优势领先联合党1。同期Morgan民调（9月7-13日，样本1583人）则显示工党与民族党并列25%，联合党21%，绿党创纪录地达16%1。
领导人支持度方面，总理Albanese的净批准度为-18，形成明显负面，而民族党领导人Hanson的净批准度为+10，联邦资源部长Taylor为+91。移民问题也成为关切焦点，40%的受访者认为现行年净海外移民目标225000人过高1。
在副选方面，工党在北领地Mulka副选中获胜，以77.6%对22.4%击败独立候选人1。西澳Secret Harbour副选最终按偏好分配后，民族党以57.2%领先工党的42.8%1。
With Victoria's state election set for November 28, the Coalition is holding a commanding position in state polling, though uncertainties persist about whether it can secure an outright majority. According to a Resolve poll conducted September 6-12 among 1,000 voters, the Coalition leads at 28 percent, ahead of Labor at 25 percent, the Nationals at 23 percent, the Greens at 12 percent, and independent candidates at 8 percent.1 In preferred premier ratings, the Coalition maintains its advantage at 28 percent compared to Labor's Carroll at 20 percent and Nationals leader Warren Pickering at 8 percent.1
On key policy questions, voters show clear divisions. A substantial majority—49 percent to 27 percent—oppose the government's proposed suburbs rail loop debt financing, while Labor's public dental plan draws 41 percent opposition against 35 percent support.1
Federal polling presents a murkier picture, with different surveys offering conflicting signals. The same Resolve poll of 2,250 voters found Labor leading at 28 percent nationally, followed by the Nationals at 27 percent, Coalition at 24 percent, Greens at 11 percent, and independents at 6 percent.1 When preference flows are applied for the 2025 election, Labor's margin narrows substantially to just 50.5 percent against the Coalition's 49.5 percent.1 In contrast, Morgan polling conducted September 7-13 among 1,583 respondents showed a tighter race, with Labor and Nationals tied at 25 percent each, the Coalition at 21 percent, and the Greens at a record high of 16 percent.1
Personal ratings among political leaders show Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with a net disapproval rating of minus 18, while Pauline Hanson records plus 10 and Angus Taylor plus 9.1 Immigration remains a point of political contention, with 40 percent of respondents believing Labor's current net overseas migration target of 225,000 is too high.1
In recent by-elections, outcomes varied by state. Labor secured a decisive victory in the Northern Territory's Mulka by-election, defeating an independent candidate 77.6 to 22.4 percent.1 The Nationals won the Western Australian seat of Secret Harbour with 57.2 percent against Labor's 42.8 percent after preference distribution.1
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