川習二會在即 專家預期突破有限、台灣成焦點

美國與中國將於9月24日在華府舉行川習二會 1。陸委會副主委沈有忠表示，雙方在科技、區域安全及台灣議題上的結構性分歧難以解決，美中競爭格局不會改變 1。專家認為，具體成果可能集中在農產品採購等經貿領域，但在人工智慧、高科技管制等核心爭議上的突破有限 1。

美中兩國近期在科技與投資安全措施上暗潮洶湧 1。美方透過外資審查委員會（CFIUS）否決中資併購案、聯邦通訊委員會限制中國製路由器、五角大廈將中企列入實體名單 1；中國則採取出口管制、不可靠實體清單及反外國制裁等反制手段 1。雙方擬相互減免約300億美元商品關稅，中國已增加美國大豆及牛肉訂單 1。

台灣議題預料將成為川習會討論重點。多位學者認為，中國必將在談判中提出台灣問題，但進入實質協商的空間有限 2。專家指出，半導體、人工智慧和台海議題已納入美國國家安全範疇，非一般談判項目 2。學者警告，中國正操作疑美、棄台論述進行認知作戰 2。台灣學者建議，台灣不應預設自己會成為美中交易籌碼，應逐步檢視美國後續的對台軍售與安全合作實際行動 2。

A second Trump-Xi summit is scheduled for September 24 in Washington, with analysts warning that fundamental disagreements between the United States and China will likely constrain meaningful breakthroughs.1 Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Shen Youzhong assessed that structural differences over technology, regional security, and the Taiwan issue remain difficult to resolve, leaving the competitive landscape unchanged.1 Experts expect any concrete outcomes to concentrate on trade matters such as agricultural purchases, while progress on core disputes involving artificial intelligence, advanced semiconductors, and tariffs will be limited.1

Both sides have intensified technology and investment security measures in recent months, with surface calm masking underlying tensions.1 The United States has employed mechanisms including CFIUS reviews to block Chinese acquisition attempts, Federal Communications Commission restrictions on Chinese routers, and Pentagon listings of Chinese enterprises, while China has pursued export controls, unreliable entity lists, and countermeasures against foreign sanctions.1 The two nations are negotiating mutual tariff relief on approximately $300 billion in goods, and China has expanded purchases of American soybeans and beef, though Boeing aircraft procurement involves complications related to Chinese sanctions.1

Regarding Taiwan, multiple scholars anticipate that China will raise the issue during the summit but expect limited space for substantive negotiation.2 Scholar Wang Zhisheng warned that China will likely transform US-China leader engagement into political narratives targeting Taiwan, amplifying rhetoric about American abandonment.2 Analysts cautioned that Beijing is testing boundaries by demanding the United States suspend new military aid packages to Taiwan and conducting cognitive warfare through gray-zone tactics, economic coercion, and legal measures.2 Scholars advised Taiwan not to presume it will become a bargaining chip in US-China dealings, urging instead careful assessment of subsequent American actions on military support and security cooperation.2