民主党在即将到来的中期选举中夺取美国参众两院控制权的可能性，在很大程度上取决于伊朗战争所引发的经济后果。根据预测分析师Nate Silver的模型，民主党目前有57%的概率赢得参议院控制权，86%的概率赢得众议院控制权1。本次中期选举定于11月3日举行，将决出众议院全部435个席位和参议院100个席位中的35个1。
当前政治形势对民主党相对有利。民主党在通用选票中领先共和党8.2个百分点，支持率为50.8%对42.7%1。特朗普的净支持率为-19.7，其中38.5%支持，58.2%反对1。然而，关于伊朗战争的民众态度存在分歧，55.7%反对，35.6%支持，净支持率为-20.11。分析人士指出，若伊朗战争导致的油价上涨和通胀继续恶化，共和党可能会大幅失去两院控制权；但如果局势缓和且油价回落，共和党仍将保持竞争力1。
经济数据方面，美国8月新增就业16.2万个岗位，失业率保持在4.1%1。通胀方面，8月总体通胀环比为0.4%，核心通胀环比为0.3%，同比分别为3.4%和2.4%1。标普500指数上周五上涨0.9%，但较8月13日高点下跌1.8%1。
Democrats' prospects for gaining control of both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections depend significantly on the ongoing consequences of the Iran war, according to analysis of the political landscape.1 Forecasting model predictions by Nate Silver show Democrats hold a 57% probability of winning Senate control and an 86% probability of winning House control.1 The trajectory of these races could shift substantially depending on whether the Iran conflict continues to drive oil price increases and inflation, potentially boosting Democratic gains, or whether economic turbulence subsides and prices stabilize, maintaining Republican competitiveness.1
Current polling and economic indicators present Democrats with several advantages. In the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans 50.8% to 42.7%, a margin of 8.2 percentage points.1 President Trump's net favorability stands at negative 19.7 points, with 58.2% disapproving and 38.5% approving.1 Support for the Iran war itself remains limited, with 55.7% opposing and 35.6% supporting the conflict, yielding a net support rating of negative 20.1 points.1
Economic conditions show mixed signals ahead of the election. August employment figures revealed 162,000 new jobs added while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.1 Inflation data for August indicated monthly increases of 0.4% for overall inflation and 0.3% for core inflation, while year-over-year rates stood at 3.4% and 2.4% respectively.1 Stock markets showed modest gains, with the S&P 500 rising 0.9% on Friday but remaining 1.8% below its August 13 peak.1
The election will determine control of all 435 House seats and 35 of 100 Senate seats.1 Republicans currently control the House 220-215 and the Senate 53-47 from the previous election cycle.1
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