一项最新研究显示，澳大利亚现有政策不足以实现其气候承诺。1该研究表明，全球升温将在未来五年内突破1.5°C阈值，1澳大利亚需要将净排放相比2005年水平下降55%（到2030年），并于2050年实现净零排放。1
当前政策执行效果有限。1澳大利亚的碳排放管制机制在2025年仅实现2.3%的工业排放下降，远低于实现目标所需的4.9%年度下降率。1虽然澳大利亚设定了82%的可再生能源非约束性目标（到2030年），1但专家认为这一目标可能难以实现。1为了达成1.5°C温控目标，澳大利亚需要采取更激进的措施，包括强化可再生能源目标的约束力、改革碳排放管制机制，以及逐步淘汰化石燃料项目。1
澳大利亚的能源结构转变也面临挑战。1化石燃料目前占澳大利亚能源供应的约90%，1该国计划让电力需求占能源总需求的50%（到2035年），较2025年的25%大幅提升。1然而，澳大利亚政府自执政以来已批准37个新的、扩展或延长的化石燃料项目，另有42个在审批管道中。1这一做法与国际气候承诺形成矛盾——2025年国际法院的气候变化咨询意见指出，许可新的化石燃料项目可能构成"国际不法行为"。1澳大利亚作为全球最大化石燃料出口国之一，其排放占全球二氧化碳排放的约4.5%。1
A new study indicates that Australia requires substantially more aggressive measures to achieve its climate commitments, including a 55% reduction in net emissions below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050.1 Current policies are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C, a threshold expected to be breached within the next five years.1
The research identifies several critical areas requiring policy strengthening. Australia's carbon emissions management scheme achieved only a 2.3% reduction in industrial emissions in 2025, falling short of the required annual decline rate of 4.9%.1 Additionally, the nation's renewable energy target of 82% by 2030 lacks binding enforcement mechanisms and may not be achieved.1 The study emphasizes that electricity must account for 50% of Australia's energy demand by 2035, up from 25% in 2025.1
A fundamental contradiction undermines current Australian policy: while the government has committed to energy transition, it has simultaneously approved 37 new, expanded, or extended fossil fuel projects since taking office, with 42 additional projects in the approval pipeline.1 Fossil fuels currently supply approximately 90% of Australia's energy and account for over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions.1 As one of the world's largest fossil fuel exporters, Australia's energy sector generates approximately 4.5% of global carbon dioxide emissions.1 A 2025 International Court of Justice advisory opinion on climate change concluded that licensing new fossil fuel projects may constitute an "internationally wrongful act."1 Australia is scheduled to host COP31 negotiations in November.1
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