学者吴国光指出，2026年将成为美中关系的转折年份，习近平与川普今年应会晤4次1。根据其分析，这些会晤计划包括5月、9月、11月及12月1，其中第2次川习会可望于9月24日举行1。在5月的首次会晤中，习近平曾提出与川普达成共识，构建"中美建设性战略稳定关系"作为中美关系的新定位1。
吴国光认为，中国透过多次川习会的讨价还价，意图达成三项涉台目标：美国不介入台海军事冲突、减少甚至取消对台军售，以及向美国施压在台海问题上不能长期维持现状1。他进一步分析，中国很可能将川普任期视为战略机会窗口，一旦美国减少对台军售，中方就会削弱台湾的防卫力量，随后扩大军事演习1。与此同时，中共将于10月召开二十届五中全会1，而习近平连任第4个任期已无悬念1。
Scholar Wu Guoguang has identified 2026 as a pivotal year for US-China relations, predicting that Xi Jinping and Trump should meet four times this year, with encounters scheduled for May, September, November, and December.1 According to Wu's analysis, the second Trump-Xi meeting is expected to take place on September 24.1 During their May meeting, Xi Jinping stated that he and Trump had agreed to establish a "constructive strategic stable China-US relationship" as a new positioning for bilateral ties.1
Wu Guoguang contends that Beijing pursues three primary objectives through these repeated high-level engagements: preventing US military intervention in cross-strait conflicts, reducing or eliminating arms sales to Taiwan, and pressuring Washington to abandon long-term maintenance of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.1 He warns that China is likely to exploit Trump's presidency as a window of opportunity, and should the United States decrease military assistance to Taiwan, Beijing would subsequently weaken Taiwan's defensive capabilities and expand military exercises.1 Additionally, the Chinese Communist Party is scheduled to convene its 20th Central Committee's Fifth Plenum in October, and there is no uncertainty regarding Xi Jinping's reelection for a fourth term.1
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