中欧国际工商学院经济学教授朱天指出，中国城镇调查失业率虽保持在5.2%左右1，但这一数据掩盖了就业问题的真正症结。大量失业者转向灵活就业领域，中国灵活就业人员已从2021年的2亿增至2025年的2.8亿，预计2026年将达3.2亿1。与此同时，领取失业保险金的人数从2021年的259万增至2025年的557万，4年增加了一倍，而同期失业保险参保人数仅增加8.5%1。
实际就业压力并未因失业率数据平稳而缓解，而是转化为工作不稳定、工时长、收入低等结构性问题1。16至24岁劳动力调查失业率近3年总体在16%至17%1，年轻群体尤其面临挑战。人民银行调查显示，就业感受指数持续下滑，从2021年第1季的43.9下降到2024年第1季的35.1，2025年第1季更降至29.21，反映出民众对就业前景的悲观情绪加深。
朱天认为，改善就业的关键在于大力度提振总需求1。他主张中央财政应采取措施直接支持居民消费、阻止房地产继续下行、增加对地方政府的转移支付1。
China's official urban unemployment rate remains stable at around 5.2%, yet this headline figure obscures deeper labor market challenges, according to economists analyzing the country's employment situation.1 Professor Zhu Tian from China Europe International Business School has argued that the conventional unemployment metric fails to capture the true extent of employment difficulties facing Chinese workers.1
The core issue lies in a structural shift toward precarious work arrangements. China's flexible employment population has surged from 200 million in 2021 to 280 million by 2025, with projections reaching 320 million by 2026.1 Rather than manifesting as rising joblessness, employment pressure has instead translated into job instability, extended working hours, and depressed wages.1 This trend is corroborated by declining worker sentiment: the People's Bank of China's employment satisfaction index dropped from 43.9 in the first quarter of 2021 to 29.2 by the first quarter of 2025.1 Meanwhile, youth unemployment among those aged 16 to 24 has remained persistently high, hovering between 16 and 17 percent over the past three years.1
Concurrent indicators of labor market stress point toward a deteriorating situation. The number of unemployment insurance recipients nearly doubled from 2.59 million in 2021 to 5.57 million by 2025, despite unemployment insurance participation growing by only 8.5 percent over the same period.1 The deflating economy compounds these pressures, with the GDP price index contracting for three consecutive years from 2023 to 2025.1 Professor Zhu has recommended that policymakers prioritize boosting aggregate demand through central fiscal measures, including direct support for household consumption, intervention to stabilize the real estate sector, and increased transfer payments to local governments.1
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