根据中情局1994年建立的政权崩溃预测模型，美国目前处于最高风险分类——部分民主制与深度派系分裂的范畴1。该模型由Ted Robert Gurr、Jack Goldstone等学者领导，在1955年至2003年间对152个国家预测准确率超过80%，两年内可准确预测国家崩溃，预测指标包括政权类型、婴儿死亡率、邻国战争状态和政府歧视行为1。
美国民主指标出现明显衰退迹象1。美国在Polity指数中2020年评分为+5，已跌至民主分界线以下，2016年被重新编码为派系性竞争而非竞争性1。美国民主研究所（V-Dem）在2026年将美国从自由民主降级为选举民主，单一年度下跌幅度创纪录，从全球排名第20位跌至第51位，为两个多世纪来最剧烈下滑1。2018年V-Party指数显示共和党反多元主义得分为0.43以上，接近土耳其AKP（1.0）和匈牙利Fidesz（0.88）的水平1。
军事领导层的频繁更替凸显政治不稳定1。2025年2月，美国总统在一夜间解除了联合参谋长、海军司令、空军副司令等十多位高级将领职务1。同时联邦政府面临财政困难，2025年3月五角大楼准备裁减76000名文职员工并削减8%预算，2025年10月在政府停摆期间被迫动用8亿美元研究预算支付军队薪酬，并接受1.3亿美元匿名捐款1。
公众分离主义情绪也有所上升1。根据YouGov 2026年民调，约五分之一美国人支持本州脱离联邦，其中民主党支持率已上升至高于共和党1。此外，加州每年向联邦政府支付超800亿美元，超过返还额度1。
According to a predictive model established by the CIA in 1994, the United States currently falls into the highest-risk category for regime collapse, characterized by partial democracy combined with deep factional divisions.1 The model, developed by scholars including Ted Robert Gurr and Jack Goldstone and published in the American Political Science Review in 2010, demonstrated over 80 percent accuracy when applied to 152 countries between 1955 and 2003, with the ability to forecast state collapse up to two years in advance.1 Key predictive indicators include regime type, infant mortality rates, the state of conflict in neighboring countries, and patterns of government discrimination.1
Multiple measures of democratic health reveal a sharp deterioration in American political conditions. The United States scored +5 on the Polity Index in 2020, falling below the democratic threshold, while the V-Dem Institute downgraded the country from liberal democracy to electoral democracy in its 2026 report.1 On the V-Dem scale, the United States experienced its largest single-year decline in rankings, dropping from 20th to 51st place, marking the steepest descent in over two centuries.1 In 2016, Polity recoded American political competition from competitive to factional.1 Analysis of the Republican Party using the V-Party Index in 2018 revealed an anti-pluralism score of 0.43 or higher, approaching the levels of Turkey's AKP at 1.0 and Hungary's Fidesz at 0.88.1
Structural strains on American institutions have intensified across multiple domains. In February 2025, the U.S. president removed more than a dozen senior military leaders, including the Joint Chiefs chairman, navy commander, and air force vice commander, in a single night.1 By March 2025, the Pentagon prepared to reduce its civilian workforce by 76,000 personnel and cut its budget by 8 percent.1 In October 2025, during a government shutdown, the Department of Defense diverted $800 million from research budgets to pay military personnel and accepted $130 million in anonymous donations.1 A YouGov poll from 2026 indicated that approximately one-fifth of Americans support their state's secession from the union, with support among Democrats rising above that among Republicans.1 Additionally, California remits over $80 billion annually to the federal government, exceeding the amount it receives in return.1
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