尽管全球能源供应遭遇严重冲击，欧盟经济表现出了出人意料的抵御能力。自3月以来荷姆兹海峡实际上已关闭，导致全球石油和液化天然气流量约五分之一受阻，布伦特油价同比上涨58%的背景下，欧盟GDP增速预期仅从1.5%下调至1.1%，跌幅仅为0.3个百分点1。这一相对稳定的表现反映了欧盟在过去二十年间通过能源效率提升和可再生能源发展建立的经济韧性。
欧盟在能源结构和效率方面取得了显著成就。单位GDP能耗比1995年已下降44%，其中超过三分之一的改善发生在2019年以来1。从1990年至2024年间，欧盟经济增长超过70%的同时，温室气体净排放量减少了40%1。可再生能源在能源结构中的占比不断提升，2025年可再生能源占总最终能源消费的26.2%1。西班牙2025年末可再生能源覆盖发电量的55.5%，可再生能源装机容量超80吉瓦1。热泵销售在16个欧洲市场也首次出现良好增长，2025年增长10.3%至约262万台1。
然而，欧盟仍面临多重挑战。作为能源进口依赖体，进口能源占消费量的57%，去年化石燃料进口支出340亿欧元，荷姆兹关闭导致今年额外花费约500亿欧元1。美国供应欧盟液化天然气的比例从2025年的58%上升至2026年第一季度的63%1。2019年至2023年间欧盟工业能源消耗下降主要源于化工、基础金属等能源密集型产业的结构性收缩，德国能源密集型生产在2022年2月至2026年3月间下降15.2%，相关行业就业减少53300个1。可再生能源目标达成也存在压力，距2030年42.5%的目标尚需每年提升3.3个百分点1。此外，欧盟成员国防务开支大幅增加，从2021年的2180亿欧元增至2025年约3810亿欧元，与能源转型投资形成了竞争1。
The European Union has demonstrated surprising economic resilience amid severe global energy disruptions, with its gross domestic product growth forecast declining by only 0.3 percentage points despite a 58% surge in Brent crude oil prices 1. Since March, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed, blocking approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, yet the EU's projected growth rate fell only from 1.5% to 1.1% 1.
This resilience reflects decades of energy optimization and renewable energy investment. Between 1995 and 2024, the EU has reduced energy consumption per unit of GDP by 44%, with more than one-third of this improvement occurring since 2019 1. Over the same period, the bloc expanded its economy by more than 70% while cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 40% 1. Renewable energy sources now cover 26.2% of the EU's total final energy consumption in 2025, though reaching the 42.5% target by 2030 requires accelerating growth by 3.3 percentage points annually 1.
Despite these achievements, the EU faces substantial headwinds. Imported energy accounts for 57% of the bloc's consumption, and the Hormuz closure has imposed an estimated additional €500 billion in fossil fuel import costs this year beyond the €340 billion spent on such imports last year 1. Structural economic shifts have contributed to the emissions reductions: energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and base metals contracted significantly between 2019 and 2023, with Germany's energy-intensive production declining 15.2% between February 2022 and March 2026, resulting in 53,300 job losses in related sectors 1. To strengthen energy independence, the EU has committed under a July agreement to purchase $750 billion in American energy by 2028, with U.S. liquefied natural gas rising from 58% of EU supplies in 2025 to 63% in the first quarter of 2026, potentially reaching two-thirds by 2026 and 80% by 2028–2029 1. Concurrently, EU defense spending has surged from €218 billion in 2021 to approximately €381 billion in 2025, competing with energy transition investments for limited budgetary resources 1.
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