美国密歇根大学古气候学家朱莉亚·科尔及其研究团队通过分析加拉帕戈斯群岛附近珊瑚的化学成分，重建了过去1000年的海洋温度变化历史1。研究发现，与工业化前时期相比，厄尔尼诺事件已明显增强1。珊瑚每年生长1-2厘米，其骨骼中的化学物质记录了海洋温度的变化，为研究人员提供了可靠的气候数据1。
根据观测数据，2026年7月美国国家海洋和大气管理局监测到太平洋东部和中部温度升高超过3摄氏度1。德国气象局评估认为这"很可能演变成有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺事件之一"1。气候模型预测表明，2030年代可能出现数量更高的极端东太平洋厄尔尼诺事件1。如果预测成立，2027年可能成为创纪录高温年份1，进而导致全球珊瑚大面积白化1。历史上，2023-24年和2015-16年的珊瑚大规模白化事件均发生在厄尔尼诺年份1。
需要注意的是，该研究的珊瑚数据仅覆盖过去千年中不足一半的年份1，因此研究结论仍需进一步验证。
A team of paleoclimatologists led by Julia Cole at the University of Michigan has reconstructed ocean temperature patterns over the past 1,000 years by analyzing coral records near the Galápagos Islands 1. Their findings indicate that El Niño events have become significantly stronger compared to pre-industrial times, a trend consistent with climate model projections 1.
The research reveals how corals serve as natural climate archives, with their skeletons growing 1-2 centimeters annually while recording chemical signatures of ocean temperatures 1. By examining these chemical markers, scientists can track historical temperature fluctuations. In July 2026, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) detected temperature increases exceeding 3 degrees Celsius in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean 1. Germany's Meteorological Service assessed that conditions were "very likely to develop into one of the strongest El Niño events on record" 1.
If current climate predictions hold true, 2027 may become a record-breaking year for global temperatures, potentially triggering widespread coral bleaching 1. Massive bleaching events occurred during El Niño years in 2015-16 and 2023-24 1. Climate models project that the 2030s will see increased frequency of extreme eastern Pacific El Niño events 1. However, researchers acknowledge that their coral-based dataset covers less than half of the years within the past millennium 1.
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