澳大利亚前总理凯文·陆克文在国家新闻俱乐部发表讲话，深入探讨了澳美同盟在中国崛起背景下面临的安全困境。陆克文评估美国与中国因台湾问题在2028年爆发战争的概率为"三分之一"1。美国在澳大利亚大陆控制或可获取超过100个军事基地1，澳大利亚与美国军事机构的融合程度不断加深。副总理理查德·马尔斯强调澳美同盟已维持75年，称其能"继续维持该地区战略平衡"1。
然而专家对这种深度军事融合提出质疑。专家大卫·瓦恩表示美国正在为与中国开战做准备，澳大利亚军队在其中充当"美国辅助军队"1。专家范杰克逊指出美国关注同盟国的"基地、港口和领空获取权"，而非其真正的军事贡献1。澳大利亚的地理位置被美国用于对华战略，但这也使澳大利亚可能被卷入中美冲突。美军核能潜艇将从明年起停靠珀斯的斯特林皇家海军基地1，进一步深化澳大利亚在美国印太战略中的角色。
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has raised concerns about the strategic implications of Australia's tightening military alliance with the United States, particularly as China's power grows. Speaking at the National Press Club, Rudd assessed the probability of a US-China war over Taiwan by 2028 at "one in three."1
The scale of America's military footprint in Australia underscores the depth of this integration. The United States controls or has access to more than 100 military bases across the Australian continent, and this integration is expanding further—US nuclear-powered submarines will begin docking at the Royal Australian Navy's Sterling base in Perth from next year.1 Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles defended the 75-year alliance, stating it continues to maintain "strategic balance in the region."1
However, analysts have questioned whether this arrangement truly serves Australia's interests. Expert David Vain contends that the United States is preparing for conflict with China, with the Australian military functioning as an "American auxiliary force."1 Expert Van Jackson further noted that US policy prioritizes allied nations' "access to bases, ports and airspace" rather than their direct military contributions.1 These assessments suggest that Australia's geographic position, while strategically valuable to Washington, may expose the country to risks in any potential US-China confrontation.
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