美国与伊朗之间的紧张局势在波斯湾地区持续升温，但伊朗似乎在寻求通过有限升级而非全面冲突来应对。美国总统特朗普在9月11日表示伊朗战争将在美国中期选举后立即结束1，这一言论反映出选举日期成为地区冲突的关键变量。伊朗方面则在军事上发出强硬信号，伊斯兰革命卫队在10月10日发布视频显示其在霍尔木兹海峡缴获美国Anduril Dive-LD无人水下航行器1，同时该卫队发言人于9月8日要求美国"完全停止敌对行动"1。
本周美国与伊朗因油轮和军舰事件升级了冲突1，这引发了全球能源市场的震荡——布伦特原油价格已上升至100美元/桶以上1。能源价格的上涨对特朗普所在的共和党中期选举前景构成威胁，9月2日路透社报道称特朗普的高级顾问敦促其限制冲突升级以保护选举前景1。在这样的背景下，伊朗议会副议长阿里·尼克扎德在9月9日表示"我们将继续战争直到最终胜利"1，表明伊朗虽然克制但并未放弃强硬立场。伊朗总统佩泽什基安在8月上海合作组织峰会上重申，如美国返回伊斯兰堡协议，伊朗也将返回1，这暗示伊朗寻求通过有限升级作为谈判筹码。
Tensions between the United States and Iran have intensified in recent weeks, with both nations engaging in military posturing while Iran adopts a measured approach to escalation.1 President Trump declared on September 11 that an Iran war would end immediately after the US midterm elections, scheduled for November 7, which he described as "one of the most important elections in your lives."1 However, the escalating rhetoric has triggered concerns about energy security, with Brent crude oil prices climbing above $100 per barrel.1
The recent flare-up stems from incidents involving oil tankers and military vessels in the Persian Gulf region.1 On October 10, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released video footage showing the seizure of an American Anduril Dive-LD unmanned underwater vehicle in the Strait of Hormuz.1 A Revolutionary Guard spokesman demanded on September 8 that the United States "completely cease hostile actions,"1 while parliamentary deputy speaker Ali Nikzad stated on September 9 that "we will continue the war until final victory."1 According to reports from September 2, senior Trump advisers urged the president to limit conflict escalation to protect Republican midterm prospects.1
Analysts suggest Iran is pursuing limited military escalation as a negotiating tool rather than seeking full-scale warfare.1 President Pezeshkian reiterated at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in August that Iran would return to the Islamabad agreement if the United States does the same.1 Israel is also scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on October 27, adding another layer of regional complexity.1
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