印度主办金砖峰会：新兴大国尽管分歧重重仍继续扩大组织规模

印度总理莫迪在新德里主持金砖国家峰会，普京和习近平等领导人出席会议34。本次峰会汇集了11个成员国，包括印度、中国、俄罗斯、巴西、南非、阿联酋和伊朗，沙特作为邀请成员参加3。这个涵盖全球人口49%、全球GDP 40%和国际贸易26%的组织3，正面临成员国在重大国际议题上的严峻分歧考验。

伊朗冲突成为本次峰会的主要障碍之一124。2024年5月，金砖国家外交部长因伊朗战争的分歧未能同意联合声明，印度被迫发表主席总结3。莫迪计划与习近平举行会晤，并与普京讨论乌克兰战争相关议题3，表明多个地缘政治热点都成为峰会议程的焦点。

美国政策前景也为本次峰会投下阴影。特朗普在2024年11月威胁称，如果金砖国家支持替代美元的货币，将面临"100%的关税"3。尽管金砖国家已创建100亿美元的应急储备安排以应对金融危机3，且印度提议通过UPI模式加强金砖贸易联系2，但由于各成员国利益分歧巨大，该组织不太可能发表公开反对美国或制定协调对抗特朗普政策的联合声明3。

尽管面临这些挑战，新兴经济体仍在继续加入金砖组织，表明这个集团在探索西方主导的全球秩序的替代方案中仍具吸引力12。

India is hosting a BRICS summit in New Delhi that brings together leaders from 11 member states, including Russia, China, Brazil, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran, with Saudi Arabia participating as an invited member.3 The gathering underscores a paradox within the bloc: while emerging economies continue to seek membership and alternatives to Western-dominated global structures, the organization faces deepening fractures over geopolitical disputes and competing national interests.

The summit takes place against a backdrop of significant internal tensions. In May 2024, BRICS foreign ministers failed to reach consensus on a joint statement due to disagreements over the Iran conflict, forcing India to issue only a chair's summary instead.3 The bloc's unity is further tested by the looming shadow of Trump administration policies, particularly threats of 100 percent tariffs if member states pursue de-dollarization initiatives.3 Despite these challenges, BRICS members account for approximately 49 percent of the world's population, 40 percent of global GDP, and 26 percent of international trade.3

Indian Prime Minister Modi plans bilateral meetings with Xi Jinping and discussions with Putin on Ukraine-related matters.3 The organization has already established a $10 billion emergency reserve fund to address financial crises.3 However, observers suggest that member states' divergent interests make it unlikely that BRICS will issue a coordinated public statement opposing the United States or formulating unified policies to counter Trump administration measures.3 The bloc's ability to maintain cohesion while accommodating the interests of its diverse membership remains a defining challenge as it attempts to reshape the international order.