在9·11恐怖袭击事件发生25年后，安全专家指出基地组织的核心领导层已被显著削弱，但该组织并未完全消亡。1美国财政部在2026年8月将极端传教士阿卜杜拉·穆海西尼从特别指定国民和被冻结人士名单中删除，同时也撤销了对努斯拉阵线和解放沙姆伊斯兰运动组织的制裁，这一举措反映了华盛顿对叙利亚政策的调整。1
基地组织在过去数十年间经历了深刻转变。12011年5月，其著名领导人奥萨玛·本·拉登被击毙后，该组织逐步转向区域化运作模式。1如今，基地组织已重组为多个地区分支，在萨赫勒、也门和阿富汗等地保持活跃，采取本地化战略推进其影响力。12026年6月，活跃于萨赫勒地区的分支组织JNIM宣称对尼日尔首都尼亚美国际机场的袭击事件负责。1
专家普遍认为当前关于基地组织的信息严重不足，难以准确判断其实际威胁程度。1自2023年10月7日哈马斯对以色列发动袭击以来，基地组织在重大地区冲突中鲜有显著表现。1
A quarter-century after the September 11 attacks, al-Qaeda's core has been significantly degraded through two decades of counterterrorism operations, yet the organization persists through a decentralized regional structure.1 The death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011 marked a symbolic turning point in the fight against the group.1 However, al-Qaeda has since reorganized into regional branches that maintain active operations across the Sahel, Yemen, and Afghanistan, adopting localized strategies adapted to their respective territories.1
Recent policy shifts reflect the evolving assessment of the threat landscape. In August 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department removed radical preacher Abdullah al-Muhaysini from its Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list, signaling a recalibration of Washington's approach to Syria.1 The Treasury simultaneously delisted al-Nusra Front and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from the same sanctions list.1 Despite these removals, experts note a significant information gap regarding al-Qaeda's current capabilities, making it difficult to assess its actual threat level with precision.1 The organization has faced diminishing brand influence as it competes with the Islamic State for prominence in militant circles.1 Since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, al-Qaeda has maintained a notably low profile in major regional conflicts.1 Regional affiliates such as JNIM in the Sahel claimed responsibility for an attack on Niamey International Airport in Niger in June 2026, underscoring the group's continued operational presence despite its weakened global standing.1
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