飓风劳厄尔本周登陆夏威夷考艾岛，造成树木倒伏、道路损毁等灾害1。这一事件标志着夏威夷今年迎来第二场命名风暴，打破了该群岛长期规避飓风的历史格局1。自1992年飓风伊尼基以来，夏威夷已有32年未遭直接飓风登陆1。1992年的伊尼基飓风风速为145英里/小时，摧毁或损坏考艾岛约70%的房屋和商业设施1。
今年8月，飓风拉拉登陆大岛和瓦胡岛，为155年来首次在该地区记录到飓风力阵风1。劳厄尔则于2024年9月2日短暂达到五级飓风1。气象专家指出多重因素导致了这一异常局面。国家海洋和大气管理局首席预报员Matthew Rosencrans解释称，厄尔尼诺现象使飓风形成位置更南更西，"将它们置于能向夏威夷群岛西向移动的位置"1。与此同时，人为气候变化进一步加剧了风暴威胁——气候中心报告指出，劳厄尔路径沿线的海面温度上升与人为气候变化相关的可能性提高了60倍1。美国国家飓风中心主任Michael Brennan表示，"这种规模的事件相当罕见"1。飓风季节通常从7月延伸至11月底，但在厄尔尼诺年份，9月和10月的风险更大1。
Hurricane Lauer made landfall on Kauai this week, downing trees and destroying roads across the Hawaiian islands 1. The storm represents a historic departure from Hawaii's typical weather patterns—it marks the second named hurricane to impact the archipelago this year, breaking the islands' long-standing record of relative safety from such systems 1.
Hurricane Lauer briefly reached Category 5 intensity on September 2, 2024 1. August brought Hurricane Lara, which struck both the Big Island and Oahu—the first time in 155 years that hurricane-force winds have been recorded in the region 1. This activity follows a 32-year lull since Hurricane Iniki in 1992, which struck Kauai with sustained winds of 145 miles per hour and destroyed or damaged approximately 70 percent of the island's homes and commercial buildings 1.
The unusual activity stems from a combination of natural and human-driven factors. El Niño conditions have elevated sea surface temperatures to anomalous levels, causing hurricanes to form further south and west than usual, positioning them to move westward toward Hawaii 1. Scientists have found that human-caused climate change has intensified this effect dramatically; according to climate center analysis, the probability that warming sea temperatures along Lauer's path are connected to human-driven climate change has increased 60-fold 1. Michael Brennan, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center, characterized the scale of current events as "quite rare" 1.
Matthew Rosencrans, chief forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, explained that El Niño shifts the formation zone of hurricanes southward and westward, effectively "placing them in a position where they can move westward toward the Hawaiian Islands" 1. While the hurricane season typically extends from July through late November, the risk intensifies during El Niño years, particularly in September and October 1.
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