非营利组织发布太阳地球工程研究路线图 引发学术争议

总部位于旧金山的非营利组织Reflective发布了一份详细的太阳地球工程研究路线图，规划了通过在平流层注入反射性气溶胶来对抗气候变化所需的实验、研究和基础设施1。该路线图包含四个阶段，若采取协调推进方式需耗时约十年、投资3.7亿美元；若分散推进则需要20年和14亿美元的投资1。

Reflective已筹集超过2000万美元资金，向数十个研究小组提供了约400万美元的支持1。路线图的第二阶段计划释放10公吨二氧化硫，该规模相当于全球航空业每日排放量的不到2%，耗时4至8年、成本7000万至1.5亿美元1。第三阶段则计划释放25000公吨二氧化硫，耗时4至11年、成本2.7亿至11亿美元1。

这一计划因涉及有争议的室外实验而引发关注。自2002年以来，数百名学者已签署公开信呼吁禁止室外实验和建立国际不使用协议1。Reflective联合创始人兼首席执行官Dakota Gruener表示，"世界可能需要在远短于研究系统准备时间的时间内做出非常重要的决定"1。荷兰瓦赫宁根大学全球环保治理教授Aarti Gupta则提出了核心疑虑："谁会控制这种星球改造技术？谁会开发它，谁会部署它？"1

Reflective, a San Francisco-based nonprofit, has unveiled a comprehensive research roadmap for solar geoengineering through stratospheric aerosol injection, charting the experiments, studies, and infrastructure needed to deploy reflective particles as a climate intervention strategy 1. The roadmap is structured in four phases, with timelines and costs varying significantly based on implementation approach: coordinated advancement would require approximately 10 years and $370 million in investment, while a fragmented approach would extend to 20 years with costs reaching $1.4 billion 1.

The organization has already raised over $20 million and distributed roughly $4 million in funding to dozens of research groups 1. Phase two of the roadmap involves releasing 10 metric tons of sulfur dioxide over 4 to 8 years at a cost between $70 million and $150 million, followed by phase three, which would entail releasing 25,000 metric tons of sulfur dioxide over 4 to 11 years at an estimated cost of $270 million to $1.1 billion 1. For context, the 10-ton release represents less than 2 percent of daily global aviation emissions 1.

The proposal has generated considerable debate within academic and policy circles, particularly regarding outdoor experimentation. Since 2002, hundreds of scholars have signed open letters calling for a ban on outdoor testing and international agreements against deployment 1. Aarti Gupta, a professor of global environmental governance at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, highlighted a fundamental concern: "The core question is: who will control this kind of planetary geoengineering technology? Who will develop it, and who will deploy it?" 1 Dakota Gruener, Reflective's co-founder and chief executive officer, countered that "the world may need to make very important decisions in a timeframe far shorter than the time it takes for research systems to be ready" 1.