澳大利亚联邦政府计划从2027年4月起取消65岁以上老年人的额外私人健康保险补贴1。这项政策引发了关于对公立医院影响的广泛争议。NSW卫生部长Ryan Park声称，取消补贴将导致该州公立医院每年增加23,000台手术，最多80,000人可能取消或降级保险1。然而，根据研究人员的数据分析，实际影响远小于这些预测。
研究人员基于数据分析计算出，14,821至42,498名老年人会因此取消保险1。相比之下，政府自有模型估计约44,000名老年澳大利亚人会取消保险1，而私人健康保险业引用的民调则称39%的65岁以上投保人表示可能取消保险1。对公立医院的实际压力而言，根据研究发现，私人保险覆盖每增加一个百分点可使公立医院选择性手术等候时间减少0.34天（约8小时）1，这意味着保险覆盖范围的缩小预计只会增加3至8小时的等候时间。考虑到澳大利亚公立医院每年处理770万例住院治疗1，这一影响相对有限。此外，澳大利亚每年花费76亿澳元用于私人健康保险补贴1。
Australia's federal government plans to eliminate additional private health insurance subsidies for people aged 65 and over beginning in April 2027 1. The country currently spends AUD 7.6 billion annually on private health insurance rebates 1.
The policy change has sparked debate about its potential consequences for the public healthcare system. NSW Health Minister Ryan Park has claimed that removing the subsidies could result in 23,000 additional surgeries annually at NSW public hospitals, with up to 80,000 people potentially cancelling or downgrading their coverage 1. The private health insurance industry has cited polling data suggesting that 39 percent of insured people aged 65 and over may consider cancelling their policies 1. The government's own modelling estimates approximately 44,000 older Australians would drop their insurance, representing about 1 percent of the affected population 1.
However, research-based analysis suggests the actual disruption to public hospitals will be substantially smaller. Data analysis indicates that between 14,821 and 42,498 older people would cancel their insurance 1. Based on findings from Victoria showing that each percentage point increase in private insurance coverage reduces public hospital elective surgery waiting times by 0.34 days—approximately 8 hours—the policy is projected to increase waiting times by only 3 to 8 hours 1. This represents a far more modest impact than critics have warned, considering Australia's public hospitals handle 7.7 million inpatient episodes annually 1.
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