澳大利亚气候委员会发布的最新报告预警，到本世纪末海平面上升将对该国沿海地带造成巨大经济冲击。1根据该报告，澳洲沿海地区预计将面临8551亿澳元的经济损失，其中财产损失估计为2743亿澳元，土地使用损失达5807亿澳元。1报告基于RCP4.5气候情景建模，预计本世纪末全球温度将上升2.7℃。1
洪泛威胁涉及范围广泛。1超过26.7万处沿海房产和200万公顷土地面临洪泛风险，其中昆士兰州受威胁房产最多，达93157处，新南威尔士州71210处，西澳大利亚州51366处。1农业领域受损尤为突出，约61.9万公顷农田将受到影响。1黄金海岸作为重灾区，预计经济损失单独就高达844亿澳元。1
海平面上升的紧迫性日益显现。1自1900年以来，全球海平面已平均上升超过22厘米，澳大利亚预计到2050年还将再上升14厘米。1该报告由墨尔本大学教授Tom Kompas主笔，已发表于同行评审期刊《科学报告》。1
Australia faces unprecedented economic and environmental threats from rising sea levels, according to a new report released Thursday by researchers at the University of Melbourne.1 The modeling predicts that by 2100, coastal regions will suffer accumulated economic losses of AUD $855.1 billion, with over 267,000 residential properties and 2 million hectares of land exposed to flooding risks.1
The financial impact breaks down into two major categories: direct property losses estimated at AUD $274.3 billion and land use losses of AUD $580.7 billion.1 Agricultural productivity will bear significant strain, with approximately 619,713 hectares of farmland—an area equivalent to 1.5 million acres—projected to be lost to flooding.1 Queensland faces the highest concentration of at-risk properties with 93,157 dwellings threatened, followed by New South Wales with 71,210 and Western Australia with 51,366.1 The Gold Coast region alone stands to lose AUD $84.4 billion.1
The research, published in the peer-reviewed journal Scientific Reports by Professor Tom Kompas of the University of Melbourne, is based on modeling scenarios that incorporate both sea level rise and storm surge impacts.1 Global sea levels have already risen more than 22 centimeters since 1900, with Australia expected to experience an additional 14 centimeters of rise by 2050.1 The analysis assumes a moderate climate pathway with global temperatures rising 2.7 degrees Celsius by century's end.1
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