AlphaGeo发布了涵盖全球72个最大城市的气候风险与抗御能力分析报告,通过气候风险与抗御指数(CRRI)评估各城市的物理风险和适应后风险1。研究表明,地理位置并非决定城市气候脆弱性的唯一因素,城市已有的适应措施可使风险得分相差最高33个点1。
在气候风险最高的城市中,南亚地区形成集中分布,其中艾哈迈达巴德和海德拉巴-巴基斯坦的物理风险得分均为41,木尔坦为38,达卡、加尔各答和拉合尔分别为36、35和351。达卡面临最严峻的气候威胁,其物理风险得分达60,即便经过现有适应措施抵消后,风险得分仍高达361。与此形成对比,芝加哥、墨尔本、巴塞罗那和布宜诺斯艾利斯等城市表现出最强的气候抗御能力,风险得分分别为8、11、11和121。
适应效率方面存在显著差异。中国城市在全球处于领先地位,北京、天津和深圳的适应率分别达到50%、49%和49%,上海为46%1。这些数字反映现有适应措施所能抵消的物理风险百分比1。与之相比,南亚城市虽面临极端气候威胁,但适应投资明显不足1。
报告基于AlphaGeo的专有数据集,覆盖洪水、热压力、干旱、野火和飓风等6个气候风险层1。研究人员提醒,报告反映的是城市平均水平,风险在街区或街道层面可能存在显著差异1。
AlphaGeo has released a comprehensive analysis of climate resilience across the world's 72 largest cities, revealing that geographic location alone does not determine a city's vulnerability to climate impacts 1. The Climate Risk and Resilience Index (CRRI) assesses both physical climate risks and residual risks after accounting for existing adaptation measures, demonstrating that urban adaptation strategies can reduce risk scores by as much as 33 points 1.
The findings expose stark disparities in climate preparedness globally. South Asian cities face the highest physical risks, with Ahmedabad and Hyderabad-Pakistan topping the vulnerability list at 41 points each, followed by Multan at 38, Dhaka at 36, Kolkata and Lahore each at 35 1. Dhaka emerges as the most physically threatened city overall, registering a physical risk score of 60, though its adapted risk score remains elevated at 36 1. In contrast, Chicago leads in resilience with a score of just 8, while Melbourne and Barcelona each score 11, and Buenos Aires scores 12 1.
Chinese cities demonstrate the world's most efficient adaptation capacity. Beijing leads with 50 percent of physical risks offset by existing measures, followed by Tianjin and Shenzhen at 49 percent each, and Shanghai at 46 percent 1. The adaptation rate measures the percentage of physical climate risk that current adaptation measures effectively mitigate 1. The analysis encompasses six climate hazard categories—flooding, heat stress, drought, wildfires, and hurricanes—drawn from AlphaGeo's proprietary dataset 1. Notably, the report reflects city-level averages, and actual risk exposure may vary significantly at neighborhood or street levels 1.
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