英国正面临新一轮生活成本危机，官方数据预计本周显示7月份通胀率升至2.9%，较6月的2.6%显著上升[1]。这一上升主要源于能源价格的急剧攀升。英国能源监管机构Ofgem在7月将家庭燃气和电力价格上限提高13%[1]，能源价格上升将为通胀增加约0.44个百分点[1]。据悉，伊朗战争推高了全球能源价格[1]。
英格兰银行预计英国通胀率将在年底前达到3.2%[1]，并正考虑从9月开始提高利率[1]，目前基础利率为3.75%[1]。金融市场给予9月加息的概率约为1/4[1]。为缓解压力，政府宣布从10月起实施措施，降低消费电力账单平均45英镑[1]。在最坏的情景下，通胀可能在2027年中期达到4.5%[1]。
Britain is bracing for a fresh squeeze on household finances as surging energy costs threaten to reignite inflation pressures. Official data expected this week will show that July's inflation rate climbed to 2.9%, up from 2.6% in June, driven largely by soaring energy bills [1]. The energy regulator Ofgem raised the price cap for household gas and electricity by 13% in July [1], a move that is expected to add approximately 0.44 percentage points to inflation [1].
The Bank of England has warned that inflation could reach 3.2% before the year ends [1], prompting consideration of interest rate increases starting in September [1]. The central bank currently maintains the base rate at 3.75% [1], while financial markets are pricing in roughly a one-in-four chance of a rate hike in September [1]. In response, the government has announced a measure to reduce average household electricity bills by 45 pounds from October onwards [1]. Under a worst-case scenario, inflation could eventually spike to 4.5% by mid-2027 [1].